Pervez Amjad, Nguyen-Phuoc Duy Q, Mai Nhat Xuan, Vo Dinh Quang Nhat, Lee Jaeyoung Jay
School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, PR China.
The University of Danang - University of Science and Technology, Viet Nam.
Accid Anal Prev. 2025 Jun;216:108024. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.108024. Epub 2025 Apr 10.
Motorcycles have become a primary mode of transportation in many low- and middle-income countries, including Vietnam, where they are widely used for personal transport and commercial activities. The growing reliance on motorcycles, driven by rapid urbanization and the rise of app-based delivery platforms, has brought economic benefits but also significant public health concerns due to the high incidence of road traffic crashes. This study, based on a questionnaire survey targeting regular motorcyclists and food delivery riders in Vietnam, examines and compares the factors contributing to crash involvement between two groups, regular and delivery riders. Random parameters models with heterogeneity in means and variances were employed to capture variability in respondent behaviors. The results reveal that psychological factors, such as negative attitudes toward traffic rules and intentions to violate rules, significantly increase crash involvement for both regular and delivery riders, with the effect being more pronounced among delivery riders due to job pressures. Conversely, positive attitudes reduce crash involvement but are less effective for delivery riders due to high time pressures and frequent distractions. Perceived severity of crashes and the swiftness of sanctions also play critical roles: higher perceived severity promotes safer behavior, while the threat of sanctions deters risky actions for both groups. Rider attributes, such as age, education, and income, influence crash involvement, with younger and lower-educated riders facing higher risks among both groups due to inexperience and limited traffic knowledge, while income effects vary between regular and delivery riders. Travel characteristics, such as travel durations of more than two hours, increase crash involvement due to fatigue and exposure, particularly affecting delivery riders who navigate complex urban environments and face frequent distractions. The findings also highlight the importance of addressing heterogeneity in data analysis for more comprehensive insights. Moreover, based on these results, various policy implications are provided to reduce traffic crashes and enhance safety for motorcyclists in motorcycle-dominated countries.
在包括越南在内的许多低收入和中等收入国家,摩托车已成为主要的交通方式,广泛用于个人出行和商业活动。在快速城市化和基于应用程序的配送平台兴起的推动下,对摩托车的依赖日益增加,这带来了经济效益,但由于道路交通事故的高发率,也引发了重大的公共卫生问题。本研究基于对越南普通摩托车骑手和送餐骑手的问卷调查,考察并比较了两组骑手(普通骑手和送餐骑手)发生事故的影响因素。采用均值和方差具有异质性的随机参数模型来捕捉受访者行为的变异性。结果显示,心理因素,如对交通规则的消极态度和违规意图,会显著增加普通骑手和送餐骑手发生事故的几率,由于工作压力,这种影响在送餐骑手中更为明显。相反,积极态度会降低事故发生率,但由于时间压力大且频繁分心,对送餐骑手的效果较差。对事故严重程度的认知以及制裁的迅速性也起着关键作用:较高的事故严重程度认知会促进更安全的行为,而制裁的威胁会威慑两组骑手的危险行为。骑手属性,如年龄、教育程度和收入,会影响事故发生率,两组中年轻和受教育程度较低的骑手由于经验不足和交通知识有限面临更高风险,而普通骑手和送餐骑手的收入影响有所不同。出行特征,如出行时长超过两小时,会因疲劳和暴露增加事故发生率,尤其影响在复杂城市环境中骑行且频繁分心的送餐骑手。研究结果还强调了在数据分析中考虑异质性以获得更全面见解的重要性。此外,基于这些结果,提出了各种政策建议,以减少交通事故并提高以摩托车为主的国家中摩托车骑手的安全性。