Vinokur A, Burnstein E, Sechrest L, Wortman P M
J Pers Soc Psychol. 1985 Jul;49(1):70-84. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.49.1.70.
Decision-making processes and their outcomes were investigated in six consensus development conferences at the National Institutes of Health in which panels of experts evaluated new medical technologies. One hundred seventy-seven self-administered questionnaires were obtained from participants in these conferences. Questionnaire data were analyzed along with data derived from content analyses of the six consensus statements (CS) produced by the conferences. Results of these analyses provide considerable support for the hypotheses that the quality of the outcome (i.e., the CS) is determined by the existence of an interaction process, a decision procedure, and a chairperson, which facilitate the exchange of relevant information. Strong disagreements among the panelists appear to inhibit such exchange and harm the quality of the CS. Personal satisfaction appears to be more strongly related to the quality of the process and of the information disseminated than to the quality of the outcome. A clear relation was found between the panelists' status and expertise, their participation in the process, and their contribution to the CS. The pattern of these findings is quite similar to that obtained in laboratory studies. The role of preconference organizational factors, such as the selection of conference questions, panel, and speakers, and the characteristics of the technology are discussed.
在美国国立卫生研究院召开的六次共识发展会议上，对决策过程及其结果进行了调查，在这些会议中专家小组对新的医疗技术进行了评估。从这些会议的参与者那里获得了177份自行填写的调查问卷。对问卷数据以及从会议产生的六份共识声明（CS）的内容分析中得出的数据进行了分析。这些分析结果为以下假设提供了相当多的支持：结果（即CS）的质量取决于互动过程、决策程序和主席的存在，这些因素有助于相关信息的交流。专家小组成员之间的强烈分歧似乎会抑制这种交流并损害CS的质量。个人满意度似乎与过程质量和所传播信息的质量的关联比与结果质量的关联更强。在专家小组成员的地位和专业知识、他们在过程中的参与以及他们对CS的贡献之间发现了明确的关系。这些发现的模式与在实验室研究中获得的模式非常相似。还讨论了会前组织因素的作用，如会议问题、专家小组和演讲者的选择以及技术的特点。
