Egger Sam, David Michael, McCool Judith, Hardie Lucy, Weber Marianne F, Luo Qingwei, Freeman Becky
The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia.
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2025 Mar 20;56:101522. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101522. eCollection 2025 Mar.
New Zealand experienced a prolonged period of minimal regulation on e-cigarettes until the passing of the 2020 Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Vaping) Amendment Act.
Interrupted time series analyses of the Action for Smokefree 2025 (ASH) Year 10 Snapshot Survey data from 1999 to 2023 to compare changes in smoking trends among 14-15-year-old students (n = 690,470) before and after the advent of vaping in New Zealand (around 2010).
The prevalence of daily-vaping increased from 1.1% in 2015 (the first year the question was asked) to 1.8% in 2018 before rising to 10.0% in 2023, a nine-fold increase over eight years. From 1999 to 2023, considerable declines in ever-, regular-, and daily-smoking prevalence were observed. However, the rates of decline in ever- and regular-smoking slowed significantly from 2010 onwards (p < 0.001 for both), coinciding with the advent and rapid growth of vaping among New Zealand adolescents. In contrast, the rate of decline in daily-smoking did not significantly change from 2010 onwards (p = 0.066). These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses, including the use of different time series interruption points (change-years) and controlling for inflation-adjusted cigarette prices.
Our findings starkly contrast with those from a previous analysis of ASH data, which suggested that e-cigarettes appear to be displacing smoking among New Zealand youth. Instead, our findings suggest that among 14-15-year-olds, the rapid rise of vaping may have slowed the rates of decline in ever- and regular-smoking, while having little or no impact on the rate of decline in daily smoking. Our findings underscore the importance of effective policy approaches to curb both adolescent vaping and smoking.
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在2020年《无烟环境和受管制产品（电子烟）修正法案》通过之前，新西兰经历了一段对电子烟监管极少的漫长时期。
对1999年至2023年“2025年无烟行动”（ASH）10年级抽样调查数据进行中断时间序列分析，以比较新西兰电子烟出现前后（约2010年）14至15岁学生（n = 690,470）吸烟趋势的变化。
每日吸电子烟的流行率从2015年（该问题首次被问及的年份）的1.1%上升到2018年的1.8%，然后在2023年升至10.0%，八年内增长了九倍。从1999年到2023年，曾经吸烟、经常吸烟和每日吸烟的流行率都有显著下降。然而，从2010年起，曾经吸烟和经常吸烟的下降速度显著放缓（两者p均<0.001），这与新西兰青少年中电子烟的出现和迅速增长相吻合。相比之下，从2010年起，每日吸烟的下降速度没有显著变化（p = 0.066）。这些发现对敏感性分析具有稳健性，包括使用不同的时间序列中断点（变化年份）以及控制经通胀调整的香烟价格。
我们的研究结果与之前对ASH数据的分析结果形成鲜明对比，之前的分析表明电子烟似乎正在取代新西兰年轻人中的吸烟行为。相反，我们的研究结果表明，在14至15岁的青少年中，电子烟的迅速崛起可能减缓了曾经吸烟和经常吸烟的下降速度，而对每日吸烟的下降速度几乎没有影响。我们的研究结果强调了采取有效政策措施来遏制青少年吸电子烟和吸烟行为的重要性。
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