Wang Wei-Wu, Fu Tian-le, Chen Huan
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Apr 8;46(4):1937-1950. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202404046.
Land use change is a crucial factor influencing the variation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the relationship between land use change and carbon storage is important for optimizing regional land use structure, maintaining regional carbon balance, and enhancing regional carbon storage. Against the backdrop of the "Dual Carbon" goals and the dual emphasis on high-quality integrated development in the region, the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） region holds a strategic position as a hub of China's modernization efforts. Therefore, taking the YRD urban agglomeration as an example, based on the PLUS model, an analysis of land use changes from 2000 to 2020 was conducted. Scenarios including natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were set to simulate and predict the land use pattern of the YRD urban agglomeration in 2030. Furthermore, the InVEST model was used to calculate the changes in carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios for the periods of 2000 to 2020 and 2030. Finally, spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystems of the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios, and corresponding suggestions were proposed. The results indicated that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration decreased by 51.08×10 t. The reduction in farmland area （7.82%） and increase in construction land area （7.56%） were the main reasons for carbon loss. ② By 2030, the carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem of the YRD urban agglomeration under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were estimated to be 2.65×10, 2.67×10, and 2.70×10 t, respectively. Compared with the carbon storage values in 2020, the values under all three scenarios showed a decrease to varying degrees. ③ The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed similar spatial distribution of carbon storage under all three scenarios. High-value areas were clustered in the southern and western regions of the YRD urban agglomeration, whereas low-value areas were concentrated in the eastern and central regions. These findings contribute substantially to achieving the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals in the YRD urban agglomeration.
土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的关键因素。研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间的关系，对于优化区域土地利用结构、维持区域碳平衡以及增强区域碳储量具有重要意义。在“双碳”目标以及区域高质量一体化发展双重重视的背景下，长江三角洲（YRD）地区作为中国现代化建设的枢纽，具有战略地位。因此，以长三角城市群为例，基于PLUS模型，对2000年至2020年的土地利用变化进行了分析。设定了自然发展、农田保护和生态优先等情景，以模拟和预测2030年长三角城市群的土地利用格局。此外，利用InVEST模型计算了2000年至2020年以及2030年不同情景下长三角城市群碳储量的变化。最后，运用空间自相关分析方法，探讨了不同情景下长三角城市群陆地生态系统碳储量的时空特征，并提出了相应建议。结果表明：①2000年至2020年，长三角城市群的碳储量减少了51.08×10 t。农田面积减少（7.82%）和建设用地面积增加（7.56%）是碳损失的主要原因。②到2030年，自然发展、农田保护和生态优先情景下，长三角城市群陆地生态系统的碳储量估计分别为2.65×10、2.67×10和2.70×10 t。与2020年的碳储量值相比，三种情景下的值均有不同程度的下降。③局部空间自相关分析结果表明，三种情景下碳储量的空间分布相似。高值区集中在长三角城市群的南部和西部地区，而低值区集中在东部和中部地区。这些研究结果对实现长三角城市群的“碳达峰、碳中和”目标具有重要意义。
