Seck Gondia Sokhna, Hache Emmanuel, Bonnet Clément, Simoën Marine, Carcanague Samuel
IFP Énergies Nouvelles, 1-4 av. de Bois Préau, F-92852 Rueil-Malmaison, France.
The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, (IRIS), France.
Resour Conserv Recycl. 2020 Dec;163:105072. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105072. Epub 2020 Jul 30.
This article aims to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to determine whether copper could become critical due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies compared to conventional technologies. In assessing copper availability through to 2050, we rely on our linear programming world energy-transport model, TIAM-IFPEN. We examine two climate scenarios (2 °C and 4 °C) with two mobility shape, implemented with a recycling chain. The penetration of low-carbon technologies in the transport and energy sectors (electric vehicles and low-carbon power generation technologies) is likely to significantly increase copper demand by 2050. To investigate how tension over copper resources can be reduced in the energy transition context, we consider two public policy drivers: sustainable mobility and recycling practices. Results show that in the most stringent scenario, the cumulative primary copper demand between 2010 and 2050 is found to be 89.4% of the copper resources known in 2010. They also pinpoint the importance of China and Chile in the future evolution of the copper market.
本文旨在评估铜的可获得性对能源转型的影响，并确定与传统技术相比，由于低碳技术的铜含量高，铜是否会变得至关重要。在评估到2050年的铜可获得性时，我们依赖于我们的线性规划世界能源运输模型TIAM-IFPEN。我们研究了两种气候情景（2°C和4°C）以及两种交通模式，并实施了回收链。到2050年，交通和能源部门（电动汽车和低碳发电技术）中低碳技术的普及可能会显著增加铜的需求。为了研究在能源转型背景下如何缓解对铜资源的紧张状况，我们考虑了两个公共政策驱动因素：可持续交通和回收利用实践。结果表明，在最严格的情景下，2010年至2050年期间的累计原生铜需求为2010年已知铜资源的89.4%。研究结果还指出了中国和智利在未来铜市场演变中的重要性。
