Yin Yingxuan, Xu Anyuan, Pan Xiaowen, He Qing, Wu Aoxun, Huang Linya, Wu Yinjuan, Li Xuerong
Department of Parasitology, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, China.
Department of Blood Transfusion, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, China.
Sci One Health. 2025 Mar 20;4:100107. doi: 10.1016/j.soh.2025.100107. eCollection 2025.
The invasive freshwater snail poses significant threats to the ecological environment, public health safety, and the agricultural and forestry economy. Gaining insight into their geographical spread in China under current and future climate scenarios is crucial for effective monitoring and control strategies against this invasive species.
Global distribution data of were collected and screened using "ENMtool"; environmental variables were screened based on contribution of environmental variables, jackknife test and variable correlation analysis using and ; "kuenm" package in software was used to calculate and adjust model parameters; the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution range of in China under different climate scenarios; was used to process and visualize the results.
A total of 2012 distribution points were screened, and the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest season, precipitation in March and November were used to construct the MaxEnt model with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.918. According to the prediction, is currently widely spread across the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province, Chongqing Municipality, and areas proximate to the Yangtze River Basin in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, which encompass 10.22 % of China's terrestrial area. Under future climate projections, the suitable habitats for in southern regions are expected to contract, whereas those in northern regions are anticipated to remain relatively stable. As a result, the overall distribution center is likely to shift marginally northward.
With the future climate change, the total suitable habitats of in China showed a shrinking trend, and the shrinkage was more significant in the southern low-latitude suitable habitats. To mitigate its impact on China's ecosystem and the loss caused by invasion, relevant departments should increase monitoring and prompt control, and implement efficient preventive and eradication measures.
入侵性淡水螺对生态环境、公共卫生安全以及农林经济构成重大威胁。了解其在当前和未来气候情景下在中国的地理扩散情况，对于制定针对这种入侵物种的有效监测和控制策略至关重要。
使用“ENMtool”收集并筛选[淡水螺名称未给出]的全球分布数据；基于环境变量的贡献、刀切法检验以及使用[软件名称未给出]和[另一软件名称未给出]进行的变量相关性分析来筛选环境变量；使用[软件名称未给出]中的“kuenm”包计算并调整模型参数；利用优化后的MaxEnt模型预测[淡水螺名称未给出]在不同气候情景下在中国的潜在分布范围；使用[软件名称未给出]处理并可视化结果。
共筛选出2012个[淡水螺名称未给出]分布点，利用最暖季度、最冷季节平均温度、3月和11月降水量构建MaxEnt模型，曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.918。据预测，[淡水螺名称未给出]目前广泛分布于广西壮族自治区、贵州省、云南省、重庆市以及长江中下游平原长江流域附近地区，占中国陆地面积的10.22%。在未来气候预测下，南方地区适合[淡水螺名称未给出]生存的栖息地预计将收缩，而北方地区预计将保持相对稳定。因此，总体分布中心可能会略微向北移动。
随着未来气候变化，中国适合[淡水螺名称未给出]生存的栖息地总面积呈缩小趋势，且在南方低纬度适宜栖息地的缩小更为显著。为减轻其对中国生态系统的影响以及[淡水螺名称未给出]入侵造成的损失，相关部门应加强监测并及时控制，实施有效的预防和根除措施。
