Arjmand Arash, Bani-Yaghoub Majid, Corkran Kiel, Pandit Pranav S, Aly Sharif S
Division of Computing, Analytics & Mathematics, School of Science and Engineering, University of Missouri, Kansas City, MO, USA.
EpiCenter for Disease Dynamics, One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, CA 95616, USA.
One Health. 2025 Apr 2;20:101023. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101023. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Biosecurity compliance refers to adherence to protocols aimed at preventing infectious disease outbreaks and controlling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across human, animal, and environmental interfaces. While many models focus solely on animal health, this study develops a One Health modeling framework to assess the impact of different compliance levels on both animal and farmworker health. The model integrates Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) for pathogen transmission in animals and the environment with Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) for disease spread among farmworkers. The next-generation matrix approach estimates the basic reproduction number specific to each pathogen strain , identifying thresholds for outbreaks or elimination of infection. Using literature-derived data on transmission dynamics, the model is validated, and key parameters values are estimated. Using the calibrated model, we examine infection transmission in dairy cattle and zoonotic spillover to farmworkers with a focus on five key biosecurity measures: (1) animal movement control and quarantine, (2) disease monitoring and reporting, (3) hygiene and disinfection, (4) feeding and watering practices, and (5) antimicrobial stewardship. Simulations reveal that compliance with biosecurity measures that reduce host-to-host transmission in the animal population has the highest impact on the reduction of infection both in animal and farmworker populations. Further ODE-SDE model analysis indicates that full compliance with the other biosecurity measures is insufficient to prevent outbreaks in a dairy farm. These results are consistent with the local and global sensitivity analyses of the model. The One Health modeling framework developed in this study can also be applied to other zoonotic diseases as a guiding tool for decision making and optimal resource allocation to reduce the likelihood of spillover.
生物安全合规是指遵守旨在预防传染病爆发和控制人类、动物及环境界面间抗菌药物耐药性(AMR)的协议。虽然许多模型仅关注动物健康,但本研究开发了一种“同一健康”建模框架,以评估不同合规水平对动物和农场工人健康的影响。该模型将动物和环境中病原体传播的常微分方程(ODE)与农场工人中疾病传播的随机微分方程(SDE)相结合。下一代矩阵方法估计每种病原体菌株特有的基本繁殖数,确定感染爆发或消除的阈值。利用文献得出的传播动力学数据对模型进行验证,并估计关键参数值。使用校准后的模型,我们研究了奶牛的感染传播以及人畜共患病向农场工人的溢出,重点关注五项关键生物安全措施:(1)动物移动控制和检疫,(2)疾病监测和报告,(3)卫生和消毒,(4)喂养和饮水做法,以及(5)抗菌药物管理。模拟结果表明,遵守减少动物群体中宿主间传播的生物安全措施对减少动物和农场工人群体中的感染影响最大。进一步的ODE - SDE模型分析表明,完全遵守其他生物安全措施不足以预防奶牛场的疫情爆发。这些结果与模型的局部和全局敏感性分析一致。本研究中开发的“同一健康”建模框架也可应用于其他人畜共患病,作为决策和优化资源分配以降低溢出可能性的指导工具。