Massey Patrick A, Taylor Ryan, Rutz Robert W, Harris Joshua, Montgomery Carver, Bhuiyan Mohammad Alfrad Nobel
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, Shreveport, Louisiana.
Houston Methodist Orthopedics and Sports Medicine, Houston, Texas.
JB JS Open Access. 2025 Apr 18;10(2). doi: 10.2106/JBJS.OA.24.00211. eCollection 2025 Apr-Jun.
Use of the word "trend" for statistical judgment with no statistical significance has been recognized in multiple fields of medical literature. "Trend" is sometimes used to describe "nearly significant" findings when they are not statistically significant. The purpose of this study was to characterize the use of the word "trend" to describe nonsignificant findings in orthopaedic publications.
Orthopaedic journals indexed in MEDLINE were identified using the terms: orthopedics OR orthopaedics OR sports medicine OR orthopedic OR orthopaedic. Abstracts from these journals that contained the word "trend" from 1985 to 2022 were identified. Journals containing literature on nonhuman orthopaedics were excluded. "Trend" used for statistical judgment without a p-value or with a nonsignificant p-value was labeled "NS Trend". Use of "trend" not in the context of statistical tests was labeled as "dictionary usage" of the word.
A total of 59,839 article abstracts were identified, with "trend" being used in 1,029 abstracts (1.7%). "NS Trend" was used in 617 abstracts (60%) to describe significant results when the p-value was not given or not actually significant. There was a strong correlation over time with increasing use of the word "trend" in orthopaedic abstracts (r = 0.956). An exponential rise in "NS Trend" usage was found (r = 0.924; R = 0.853; p < 0.001). An exponential fit was confirmed using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (p = 0.283).
The word "trend" is increasingly being used in orthopaedic literature, including suggesting statistical significance when absent. Misinterpretation of statistical analyses can lead to research conclusions that push readers toward inappropriate treatments. It is imperative that we clearly communicate our statistical findings and not use ambiguous language. The word "trend" should only be used to describe an actual trend analysis and not to imply statistical significance when none is present.
在医学文献的多个领域中，使用“趋势”一词进行无统计学意义的统计判断已得到认可。“趋势”有时用于描述“接近显著”但无统计学意义的研究结果。本研究的目的是描述在骨科出版物中使用“趋势”一词来描述无显著意义的研究结果的情况。
使用以下检索词在MEDLINE中检索骨科期刊：orthopedics、orthopaedics、sports medicine、orthopedic、orthopaedic。识别出这些期刊中1985年至2022年包含“趋势”一词的摘要。排除包含非人类骨科文献的期刊。用于无p值或p值无统计学意义的统计判断的“趋势”标记为“非显著趋势”（NS Trend）。不在统计检验背景下使用的“趋势”标记为该词的“字典用法”。
共识别出59,839篇文章摘要，其中1,029篇摘要（1.7%）使用了“趋势”一词。617篇摘要（60%）使用了“非显著趋势”来描述在未给出p值或p值实际无统计学意义时的显著结果。随着时间推移，骨科摘要中“趋势”一词的使用呈强相关性（r = 0.956）。发现“非显著趋势”的使用呈指数增长（r = 0.924；R = 0.853；p < 0.001）。使用柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验确认了指数拟合（p = 0.283）。
“趋势”一词在骨科文献中的使用越来越多，包括在无统计学意义时暗示统计学意义。对统计分析的错误解读可能导致研究结论使读者倾向于不适当的治疗方法。我们必须清晰地传达统计结果，而不是使用模糊的语言。“趋势”一词仅应用于描述实际的趋势分析，而不应在无统计学意义时暗示统计学意义。
