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在未来气候条件下将畜牧业转变为净零排放的成本。

Costs of transitioning the livestock sector to net-zero emissions under future climates.

作者信息

Bilotto Franco, Christie-Whitehead Karen Michelle, Malcolm Bill, Barnes Nicoli, Cullen Brendan, Ayre Margaret, Harrison Matthew Tom

机构信息

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Newnham, Launceston, TAS, Australia.

AgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Tennent Drive, Palmerston North, New Zealand.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2025 Apr 23;16(1):3810. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59203-5.

Abstract

Land managers are challenged with the need to balance priorities in production, greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement, biodiversity and social license to operate. Here, we develop a transdisciplinary approach for prioritising land use, illustrated by co-designing pathways for transitioning farming systems to net-zero emissions. We show that few interventions enhanced productivity and profitability while reducing GHG emissions. Antimethanogenic feed supplements and planting trees afforded the greatest mitigation, while revenue diversification with wind turbines and adoption of livestock genotypes with enhanced feed-conversion efficiency (FCE) were most conducive to improving profit. Serendipitously, the intervention with the lowest social licence-continuing the status quo and purchasing carbon credits to offset emissions-was also the most costly pathway to transition to net-zero. In contrast, stacking several interventions to mitigate enteric methane, improve FCE and sequester carbon entirely negated enterprise emissions in a profitable way. We conclude that costs of transitioning to net-zero are lower when interventions are bundled and/or evoke productivity co-benefits.

摘要

土地管理者面临着在生产、温室气体减排、生物多样性和运营的社会许可之间平衡优先事项的挑战。在此,我们开发了一种跨学科方法来确定土地利用的优先次序,以共同设计将农业系统转变为净零排放的途径为例进行说明。我们表明,很少有干预措施在减少温室气体排放的同时提高了生产力和盈利能力。抗甲烷生成饲料添加剂和植树带来了最大程度的减排,而通过风力涡轮机实现收入多样化以及采用具有更高饲料转化效率(FCE)的家畜基因型最有利于提高利润。巧合的是,社会许可最低的干预措施——维持现状并购买碳信用额度以抵消排放——也是向净零转型成本最高的途径。相比之下,叠加多种干预措施来减轻肠道甲烷排放、提高饲料转化效率并完全封存碳,能够以盈利的方式完全抵消企业排放。我们得出结论,当干预措施捆绑在一起和/或产生生产力协同效益时,向净零转型的成本会更低。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/24c8/12019546/3ab660fae01f/41467_2025_59203_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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