Temperate forests can deliver future wood demand and climate-change mitigation dependent on afforestation and circularity.

Global wood demand is expected to rise but supply capacity is questioned due to limited forest resources. Additionally, the global warming potential (GWP) impact of increased wood supply and use is not well understood. We propose a framework combining forest carbon modelling and dynamic consequential life-cycle assessment to evaluate this impact. Applying it to generic temperate forest, we show that afforestation to double productive forest area combined with enhanced productivity can meet lower-bound wood demand projections from 2058. Temperate forestry value-chains can achieve cumulative GWP benefit of up to 265 Tg CO-equivalent (COe) by 2100 per 100,000 ha of forest (if expanded to 200,000 ha through afforestation). Net GWP balance depends on which overseas forests supply domestic shortfalls, how wood is used, and the rate of industrial decarbonisation. Increased wood-use could aid climate-change mitigation, providing it is coupled with a long-term planting strategy, enhanced forest productivity and efficient wood use.