Global, regional, and national burden of disease analysis on paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction in adults aged 65 and over from 1990 to 2021, with projections for 2030: a Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 analysis.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the burden and trends of paralytic ileus and bowel obstruction in individuals aged ≥ 65 years, offering insights into prevention, treatment, and healthcare policy.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to analyze paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction by demographics, year, country/region, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). The statistical methods included Joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction among the elderly was 643.45 cases per 100,000 individuals. The corresponding prevalence was 24.05 per 100,000 individuals, with disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 294.01 per 100,000 person-years and a mortality rate of 20.55 per 100,000 individuals. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction in the elderly gradually increased, while age-standardized DALYs and mortality consistently declined. Despite similar trends observed across both genders, the disease burden increased with age and was more pronounced in males than in females. Furthermore, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of these conditions increased with SDI, whereas mortality and DALYs decreased. By 2030, the incidence and prevalence are expected to continue increasing, whereas mortality and DALYs are expected to decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the consistent decrease in mortality and DALYs associated with paralytic ileus and bowel obstruction in the elderly population aged ≥ 65 years, their incidence and prevalence continue to increase annually. This underscores the importance of improving preventive measures, early screening, and treatment efforts to address this pressing public health challenge.