血管性肠道疾病的全球负担：2021年全球疾病负担研究结果及基于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析的预测

The global burden of vascular intestinal diseases: results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study and projections using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

作者信息

Zhang Xiqiang, Wu Longchao, Li Yu, Tao Ze, Li Na, Zhang Haoyang, Ren Ming, Wang Kexin

机构信息

The First Clinical College, Shandong University.

Department of General Surgery, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University.

出版信息

Environ Health Prev Med. 2024;29:71. doi: 10.1265/ehpm.24-00206.

BACKGROUND

Vascular intestinal disease is a major health concern that often requires emergency surgery in patients with intestinal obstruction, perforation, or bowel necrosis. We aimed to provide data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of vascular intestinal diseases from 1990 to 2021, thereby contributing to the development of health policies.

METHODS

Using standardized methods from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of vascular intestinal disease from the perspectives of the sociodemographic index (SDI), regional, and country, along with the corresponding estimated annual percentage changes. Additionally, we used join-point regression to identify the key time points for disease burden changes.

RESULTS

In 2021, a total of 169,432 cases [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 155,127-185,189] of vascular intestinal disease were identified worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 18.81 (95% UI: 16.07-21.73) in 1990 to 15.98 (95% UI: 13.99-19.10) in 2021. In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate was 1.12/100,000 people (95% UI: 1.00-1.21). Over the 32-year period, the global DALYs rate declined by 1.44 (95% Confidence Interval: -1.55 to -1.34). Within the five SDI regions, the high-middle SDI areas recorded the peak standardized mortality rates in 2021. Regionally, the greatest increase in incidence occurred in North Africa and the Middle East. Canada recorded the greatest national incidence rate [58.35 (95% UI: 50.05-67.37)] in 2021 among 204 countries, while Russia exhibited the highest related mortality [5.64/100,000 people (95% UI: 5.19-6.11)] and DALYs rate [101.48/100,000 people (95% UI: 93.83-109.66)].

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a global decline in the burden of vascular intestinal disease from 1990 to 2021, significant regional and national disparities persist and the disease burden among the elderly has increased.

背景

血管性肠道疾病是一个重大的健康问题，肠梗阻、穿孔或肠坏死患者常需进行急诊手术。我们旨在提供1990年至2021年血管性肠道疾病的发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据，从而为卫生政策的制定做出贡献。

方法

我们采用2021年全球疾病负担研究的标准化方法，从社会人口学指数（SDI）、区域和国家层面分析血管性肠道疾病的发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs，并计算相应的年度估计百分比变化。此外，我们使用连接点回归来确定疾病负担变化的关键时间点。

结果

2021年，全球共确诊169,432例血管性肠道疾病病例[95%不确定区间（UI）：155,127 - 185,189]。年龄标准化发病率从1990年的18.81（95% UI：16.07 - 21.73）降至2021年的15.98（95% UI：13.99 - 19.10）。2021年，年龄标准化死亡率为1.12/10万人（95% UI：1.00 - 1.21）。在这32年期间，全球DALYs率下降了1.44（95%置信区间：-1.55至-1.34）。在五个SDI区域中，高中等SDI地区在2021年记录了最高的标准化死亡率。在区域层面，发病率增长最大的是北非和中东地区。在204个国家中，加拿大在2021年的全国发病率最高[58.35（95% UI：50.05 - 67.37）]，而俄罗斯的相关死亡率[5.64/10万人（95% UI：5.19 - 6.11）]和DALYs率[101.48/10万人（95% UI：93.83 - 109.66）]最高。