1990年至2021年五个东亚国家食管癌负担及其至2036年的预测：全球疾病负担研究2021分析

The Burden of Esophageal Cancer in Five East Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction Until 2036: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021.

作者信息

Guo Tianhao, Yuan Yumo, Zhou Tingting, Hui Yifan, Wang Yuhan, Zhu Wenjian, Shen Weixing, Li Liu, Yang Yu, Cheng Haibo

机构信息

Institute of Health and Regimen, Jiangsu Open University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine Prevention and Treatment of Tumor, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Thorac Cancer. 2025 Apr;16(8):e70045. doi: 10.1111/1759-7714.70045.

DOI:10.1111/1759-7714.70045

PMID:40296590

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12038174/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In 2022, esophageal cancer (EC) was the eleventh most frequently diagnosed cancer and the seventh leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Nonetheless, the prevalence and burden of EC in Asian countries have been little studied. This study investigated the prevalence, incidence, and burden of EC in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with EC in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021. The epidemiological characteristics of EC were analyzed by joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, and decomposition analysis. The burden of EC until 2036 was estimated using autoregressive integrated moving average and Bayesian age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

Among these East Asian countries, China had the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality rates, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in 1990 and 2021. China and Mongolia exhibited the highest age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized YLDs rate, age-standardized YLLs rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2036. The age group with the highest prevalence rate, incidence rate, mortality rate, YLDs rate, YLLs rate, and DALYs rate in these countries was ≥ 55 years. The prevalence and incidence rates in the five countries were influenced by aging and were higher than the global average.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of EC in five East Asian countries was high over the past three decades, particularly among older adults. EC is a significant public health problem in these countries, particularly because of the large population base and aging demographics.

摘要

背景

2022年，食管癌是全球第十一大常见诊断癌症，也是癌症相关死亡的第七大主要原因。尽管如此，亚洲国家食管癌的患病率和负担鲜少得到研究。本研究调查了1990年至2021年五个东亚国家食管癌的患病率、发病率和负担。

方法

我们从《2021年全球疾病、伤害及危险因素负担研究》（GBD 2021）中检索了1990年至2021年五个东亚国家与食管癌相关的患病率、发病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（YLDs）、寿命损失年数（YLLs）和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据。通过Joinpoint回归、年龄-时期-队列分析和分解分析对食管癌的流行病学特征进行了分析。使用自回归积分移动平均模型和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型估计了到2036年食管癌的负担。

结果

在这些东亚国家中，中国在1990年和2021年的发病率、患病率、死亡率、YLLs、YLDs和DALYs最高。从1990年到2036年，中国和蒙古的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化死亡率、年龄标准化患病率、年龄标准化YLDs率、年龄标准化YLLs率和年龄标准化DALYs率最高。这些国家中患病率、发病率、死亡率、YLDs率、YLLs率和DALYs率最高的年龄组为≥55岁。五个国家的患病率和发病率受老龄化影响，且高于全球平均水平。