Queipo Mónica, Mateo Jorge, Torres Ana María, Barbado Julia
Autoimmunity and Inflammation Research Group, Río Hortega University Hospital, 47012 Valladolid, Spain.
Cooperative Research Network Focused on Health Results-Advanced Therapies (RICORS TERAV), 28220 Madrid, Spain.
Biomedicines. 2025 Mar 27;13(4):803. doi: 10.3390/biomedicines13040803.
: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred the development of advanced healthcare tools to effectively manage patient outcomes. This study aims to identify key predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with some level of natural immunity, but not yet vaccinated, using machine learning techniques. : A total of 363 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Río Hortega University Hospital in Spain between the second and fourth waves of the pandemic were included in this study. Key characteristics related to both the patient's previous status and hospital stay were screened using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique. : Of the 19 variables identified as having the greatest influence on predicting mortality, the most powerful ones could be identified at the time of hospital admission. These included the assessment of severity in community-acquired pneumonia (CURB-65) scale, age, the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and comorbidities, as well as laboratory results. Some variables associated with hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (acute renal failure, shock, PRONO sessions and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE-II] scale) showed a certain degree of significance. The Random Forest (RF) method showed high accuracy, with a precision of >95%. : This study shows that natural immunity generates significant changes in the evolution of the disease. As has been shown, machine learning models are an effective tool to improve personalized patient care in different periods.
新冠疫情的蔓延促使了先进医疗工具的发展,以有效管理患者的治疗结果。本研究旨在使用机器学习技术,确定部分具有自然免疫力但尚未接种疫苗的住院患者死亡的关键预测因素。
本研究纳入了西班牙里奥奥尔特加大学医院在疫情第二波和第四波期间收治的363例新冠患者。使用随机森林(RF)机器学习技术筛选了与患者既往状况和住院期间相关的关键特征。
在确定的对预测死亡率影响最大的19个变量中,最具影响力的变量在入院时即可确定。这些变量包括社区获得性肺炎严重程度评估(CURB-65)量表、年龄、格拉斯哥昏迷量表(GCS)、合并症以及实验室检查结果。一些与住院和重症监护病房(ICU)入院相关的变量(急性肾衰竭、休克、PRONO治疗次数以及急性生理与慢性健康状况评估[APACHE-II]量表)显示出一定程度的显著性。随机森林(RF)方法显示出较高的准确性,精确率>95%。
本研究表明,自然免疫力会使疾病的发展产生显著变化。如前所示,机器学习模型是在不同阶段改善个性化患者护理的有效工具。