The Effect of Partial and Temporary Vaccination on African Swine Fever Eradication Rates.

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most severe diseases of pigs, with drastic impact on pig industry. Wild boar populations play the role of ASF virus epidemiological reservoir. No effective and safe ASF vaccine is available, yet, but a future vaccine will not be 100% effective and will provide protection for no more than a few months. We present an individual-based spatially explicit model of wild boar demography and ASF epidemiology, allowing to simulate a vaccination campaign. We tested how many animals should be vaccinated in relation to vaccine efficacy and to the duration of vaccine protection. We estimated how these parameters will affect ASF eradication probabilities. We also assessed how partial vaccination will interact with a series of ecological, epidemiological, and management-related factors linked to ASF persistence. In the case of a highly effective vaccine with short duration, eradication chances were generally low, and the virus disappeared only when simulating a high effort (2.5 vaccinated wild boars/km). A vaccine with low efficacy and long duration was even less effective in eradicating the ASFV, as none of the simulated scenarios provided acceptable eradication rates. Our results indicate that, under realistic conditions, vaccination against the ASF genotype II virus cannot be seen as an effective stand-alone tool for eradication. Its use should be integrated into a more comprehensive strategy, making use of all the available management tools, such as density control through hunting and carcass removal. If the vaccine will exhibit 12 months or longer duration of its protection, splitting the vaccination effort into two or three bait distribution campaigns during the year will be a feasible option. If the vaccine will exhibit a duration of its immunization significantly shorter than 1 year, a single distribution at the end of winter will maximize the probability of eradication.