Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Via Ca' Fornacetta, 9, 40064 Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy.
Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Via Ca' Fornacetta, 9, 40064 Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy.
Prev Vet Med. 2022 Jun;203:105633. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105633. Epub 2022 Mar 29.
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease, which affects different species of wild and domestic suids. After its human-caused introduction in Georgia in 2007, the ASF virus has found a new ecological reservoir in the large and continuous wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations of Eurasia, spreading both eastward and westward. ASF has also breached into the intensive pork meat production system. Although the disease has no zoonotic potential, its consequences on wild boar populations and the economic losses for the pig industry have been dramatic. As no vaccine or effective medical treatment is available to reliably protect wild boar or domestic pigs against ASF, eradication efforts are mainly based on intensive wild boar hunting and on removing a significant portion of the infected wild boar carcasses, which are the main environmental virus reservoir. Both strategies have produced poor results, so far, and ASF is becoming endemic. We compared wild boar hunting and carcass removal as alternative and combined strategies for the eradication of ASF in its endemic state, using a spatially explicit individual-based model, which incorporated the demography and spatial dynamics of a wild boar population, the spatial epidemiology of ASF in its endemic phase, and a management system acting for the eradication of the disease from the population. When no eradication effort was simulated, ASF exhibited a clear and strong tendency to persist and remain endemic in the wild boar population. Both hunting and carcass removal, when used alone, provided either a low power to remove the virus from the population, or required unrealistic field effort. The best performing scenario corresponded to the combined use of a 30% annual hunting rate and of an intensive carcass removal, during a 2-month period in late winter (February-March). Eradicating ASF from wild boar populations remains a hard task. Managers should promote a drastic increase in the effort dedicated to systematically identify and remove as many infected wild boar carcasses as possible from the affected areas, with at least 5-15 carcasses removed for each 100 hunted wild boar.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是一种高度致命的病毒性疾病，影响野生和家养猪科动物的不同物种。2007 年在格鲁吉亚人为引入后，ASF 病毒在欧亚大陆大型且不断增长的野猪（Sus scrofa）种群中找到了新的生态宿主，并向东向西传播。ASF 还突破了集约化猪肉生产系统。尽管该疾病没有人畜共患的潜力，但它对野猪种群的影响和对养猪业的经济损失是巨大的。由于没有疫苗或有效的治疗方法可以可靠地保护野猪或家猪免受 ASF 的侵害，因此根除努力主要基于密集的野猪狩猎和清除大量受感染的野猪尸体，这些是主要的环境病毒储存库。到目前为止，这两种策略的效果都很差，ASF 正在成为地方病。我们比较了野猪狩猎和尸体清除作为根除地方病 ASF 的替代和组合策略，使用了一个空间明确的基于个体的模型，该模型结合了野猪种群的人口统计学和空间动态、地方病阶段 ASF 的空间流行病学以及从种群中根除疾病的管理系统。当不模拟根除努力时，ASF 表现出明显且强烈的持续存在并在野猪种群中保持地方病的趋势。单独使用狩猎和尸体清除，要么提供从种群中清除病毒的能力较低，要么需要不切实际的实地努力。表现最好的方案对应于在冬季末（2 月至 3 月）的 2 个月期间，每年使用 30%的狩猎率和密集的尸体清除相结合的方案。从野猪种群中根除 ASF 仍然是一项艰巨的任务。管理者应大力增加努力，系统地从受影响地区识别和清除尽可能多的受感染野猪尸体，每 100 只被猎杀的野猪至少要清除 5-15 只。
