Human Papilloma Virus (HPV)-Mediated Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Incidence Relative to Geographic Rates of HPV Vaccination in the United States.

Objective This study aims to analyze the trends in the incidence of human papilloma virus (HPV)-mediated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in relation to geographic rates of HPV vaccination in the United States.  Methods The US Cancer Statistics (USCS) database and the National Cancer Institute's (NCI's) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program were used for incidence and population data collection; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Teen National Immunization Survey provided vaccination data. Incidence of HPV-mediated OPSCC and the HPV vaccination rate were compared and analyzed using t-tests, ANOVA analyses, and linear regression analyses. Results Statistically significant differences between regions of the United States were observed when incidence and vaccination rates of OPSCC were analyzed. When incidence as a function of vaccination rate was analyzed, no significance was noted. Each region had an increase in the OPSCC incidence in the post-vaccine era compared to the pre-vaccine era. Conclusion We cannot conclude that any variance in OPSCC by region is due to HPV vaccination at this time. Because some regions show increased vaccination rates compared to others, it is likely that they will reach herd immunity first and be the first to see a decline in cases as the population ages. Because of the currently insignificant relationship between the vaccination rate over time and incidence rates, additional longitudinal analyses and cohort follow-up studies are needed to further assess the vaccine's impact.