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美国境内非洲猪瘟、古典猪瘟和口蹄疫风险最高的地区 引言

Areas within the United States at the Highest Risk for African Swine Fever, Classical Swine Fever, and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Introduction.

作者信息

McKee Sophie C, Brown Vienna R, Shwiff Stephanie A, Giallombardo Glorianna M, Miller Ryan S

机构信息

Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2023 May 25;2023:8892037. doi: 10.1155/2023/8892037. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Domestic livestock production is a major component of the agricultural sector, contributing to food security and human health and nutrition and serving as the economic livelihood for millions worldwide. The impact of disease on global systems and processes cannot be understated, as illustrated by the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic through economic and social system shocks and food system disruptions. This study outlines a method to identify the most likely sites of introduction into the United States for three of the most concerning foreign animal diseases: African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). We first created an index measuring the amount of potentially contaminated meat products entering the regions of interest using the most recently available Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) air passenger inspection dataset, the AQIM USPS/foreign mail, and the targeted USPS/foreign mail interception datasets. The risk of introduction of a given virus was then estimated using this index, as well as the density of operations of the livestock species and the likelihood of infected material contaminating the local herds. Using the most recently available version of the datasets, the most likely places of introduction for ASF and CSF were identified to be in central Florida, while FMD was estimated to have been most likely introduced to swine in western California and to cattle in northeastern Texas. The method illustrated in this study is important as it may provide insights on risk and can be used to guide surveillance activities and optimize the use of limited resources to combat the establishment of these diseases in the U.S.

摘要

家畜生产是农业部门的一个主要组成部分,对粮食安全、人类健康和营养做出贡献,并作为全球数百万人的经济生计来源。疾病对全球系统和进程的影响不可低估,新冠疫情对经济和社会系统的冲击以及对粮食系统的破坏就说明了这一点。本研究概述了一种方法,用于确定三种最令人担忧的外来动物疾病进入美国的最可能地点:非洲猪瘟(ASF)、古典猪瘟(CSF)和口蹄疫(FMD)。我们首先使用最新可得的农业检疫检查监测(AQIM)航空旅客检查数据集、AQIM美国邮政/国际邮件以及有针对性的美国邮政/国际邮件拦截数据集,创建了一个衡量进入相关地区的潜在受污染肉类产品数量的指数。然后,利用该指数以及家畜物种的经营密度和受感染材料污染当地畜群的可能性,估计引入特定病毒的风险。根据数据集的最新版本,ASF和CSF最可能的引入地点被确定为佛罗里达州中部,而FMD据估计最有可能在加利福尼亚州西部引入猪群,在得克萨斯州东北部引入牛群。本研究中阐述的方法很重要,因为它可能提供有关风险的见解,并可用于指导监测活动以及优化有限资源的使用,以防止这些疾病在美国传播。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dec0/12016723/d8b91c3cf60b/TBED2023-8892037.001.jpg

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