Wooldridge M, Hartnett E, Cox A, Seaman M
Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
Rev Sci Tech. 2006 Apr;25(1):105-17. doi: 10.20506/rst.25.1.1651.
Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD), African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF) and swine vesicular disease (SVD) can cause significant economic and social costs and severe trade limitations. A number of commodities may be contaminated with these hazards, including meat and meat products derived from infected animals. Great Britain (GB) enforces a number of regulations to prevent the importation of such pathogens. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which controls may be circumvented and pathogens imported. This paper discusses a series of risk assessments examining the disease risk to the GB livestock population of FMD, CSF, ASF and SVD from the illegal importation of any meat product from any region in the world. This paper describes the development of a quantitative risk assessment model designed to identify the major contributors to this risk, and discusses the challenges posed when undertaking such complex risk assessments.
口蹄疫（FMD）、非洲猪瘟（ASF）、古典猪瘟（CSF）和猪水泡病（SVD）的爆发会造成巨大的经济和社会成本，并导致严重的贸易限制。包括来自感染动物的肉类和肉制品在内的许多商品可能会受到这些危害的污染。英国（GB）实施了多项法规以防止此类病原体的进口。然而，非法进口肉类提供了一条规避管控并进口病原体的途径。本文讨论了一系列风险评估，研究从世界任何地区非法进口任何肉类产品给英国牲畜群体带来的口蹄疫、古典猪瘟、非洲猪瘟和猪水泡病的疾病风险。本文描述了一个定量风险评估模型的开发，该模型旨在识别这种风险的主要促成因素，并讨论了进行此类复杂风险评估时所面临的挑战。
