Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2022 Apr 21;17(4):e0267128. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267128. eCollection 2022.
African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world's domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.
非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 在过去几十年中已传播到非洲、欧洲和亚洲的许多国家。然而，ASF 感染的潜在地理范围尚不清楚。在这里，我们结合了一个建模框架和 ASF 病例的当代综合记录以及多个协变量，以预测 ASF 在全球范围内的风险分布。源自家猪的 ASF 风险的局部空间变化强烈受到牲畜因素的影响，而野猪发生 ASF 的风险主要与自然栖息地协变量相关。风险图表明，ASF 在许多地区普遍存在，在北半球地区的风险更高。全世界近一半的家猪（13.88 亿头）处于高风险区域。我们的研究结果提供了对疾病当前地理范围以外的潜在分布的更好理解。
