Ito Satoshi, Bosch Jaime, Aguilar-Vega Cecilia, Isoda Norikazu, Martínez-Avilés Marta, Sánchez-Vizcaíno José Manuel
VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2023 Feb 22;2023:9484441. doi: 10.1155/2023/9484441. eCollection 2023.
In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after more than a quarter of a century. After the first notification on a pig farm, wild boars positive for CSF were found continuously in the surrounding area. Gifu was the first prefecture in Japan to disseminate oral vaccines to wild boars in March 2019, with vaccines spread to approximately 14,000 sites between 2019 and 2020. While these diligent measures seemed to have shown some effectiveness, several vaccine spray sites remained without wild boar emergence. Based on the vaccine dissemination records from these periods, this study conducted a statistical analysis to propose more effective vaccine dissemination sites. First, a generalized linear mixed model was used to identify factors correlated with wild boar emergence. Then, two spatial interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW) and Kriging, were adopted to create a probability map of wild boar emergence for the entire Gifu Prefecture. The analysis showed a positive correlation between wild boar emergence and the appearance of raccoons, raccoon dogs, and crows as well as road density and wild boar distribution index. In particular, raccoon (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.25-2.68, < 0.001), raccoon dog (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.25-2.66, < 0.001), and medium level road density (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.04-2.39, = 0.04) were strongly correlated with wild boar emergence. The spatial interpolation approach resulted in better prediction accuracy for the Kriging method than for IDW by the root mean square error, but both approaches identified a high wild boar appearance probability area in southeastern Gifu and a low appearance probability area in central Gifu. Here we have demonstrated a tool to effectively disperse oral vaccine to wildlife.
2018年9月，经典猪瘟（CSF）在日本绝迹逾四分之一个世纪后再度出现。自一家养猪场首次通报疫情后，周边地区陆续发现了感染经典猪瘟的野猪。岐阜县是日本首个于2019年3月向野猪投放口服疫苗的县，在2019年至2020年期间，疫苗投放点约达14000处。尽管这些积极措施似乎已显现出一定成效，但仍有部分疫苗喷洒点未见野猪出没。基于这些时间段的疫苗投放记录，本研究进行了统计分析，以确定更有效的疫苗投放点。首先，使用广义线性混合模型来识别与野猪出没相关的因素。然后，采用反距离加权法（IDW）和克里金法这两种空间插值方法，绘制了岐阜县全县野猪出没的概率图。分析表明，野猪出没与浣熊、貉和乌鸦的出现以及道路密度和野猪分布指数呈正相关。特别是，浣熊（比值比：1.83，95%置信区间：1.25 - 2.68，<0.001）、貉（比值比：1.81，95%置信区间：1.25 - 2.66，<0.001）和中等道路密度（比值比：1.56，95%置信区间：1.04 - 2.39，=0.04）与野猪出没密切相关。通过均方根误差比较，空间插值法中克里金法的预测精度高于IDW法，但两种方法均确定了岐阜县东南部野猪出现概率高的区域和岐阜县中部出现概率低的区域。在此，我们展示了一种有效向野生动物分发口服疫苗的工具。
