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韩国高致病性禽流感H5N8亚型第二阶段疫情时点患病率的插值法

Interpolation of Point Prevalence Rate of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 Second Phase Epidemic in South Korea.

作者信息

Ahmad Saleem, Koh Kye-Young, Lee Jae-Il, Suh Guk-Hyun, Lee Chang-Min

机构信息

Veterinary Public Health Lab, College of Veterinary Medicine, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea.

Department of Veterinary Internal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine and BK21 FOUR Program, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea.

出版信息

Vet Sci. 2022 Mar 16;9(3):139. doi: 10.3390/vetsci9030139.

Abstract

Humans and animals are both susceptible to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In the future, HPAI has the potential to be a source of zoonoses and pandemic disease drivers. It is necessary to identify areas of high risk that are more vulnerable to HPAI infections. In this study, we applied unbiased predictions based on known information to find points of localities with a high probability of point prevalence rate. To carry out such predictions, we utilized the inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging method, with the help of the R statistical computing program. The provinces of Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheongbuk-do and Ulsan have high anticipated risk. This research might aid in the management of avian influenza threats associated with various potential risks.

摘要

人类和动物都易感染高致病性禽流感(HPAI)病毒。未来,高致病性禽流感有可能成为人畜共患病的源头和大流行疾病的驱动因素。有必要确定更容易受到高致病性禽流感感染的高风险区域。在本研究中,我们基于已知信息进行无偏预测,以找到点患病率高的地点。为了进行此类预测,我们借助R统计计算程序,利用了反距离加权(IDW)和克里金法。全罗南道、京畿道、忠清北道和蔚山等省份具有较高的预期风险。这项研究可能有助于应对与各种潜在风险相关的禽流感威胁的管理。

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