Palmer Lucas, Brooks Gabriel A, Clark Luke
Department of Psychology, Centre for Gambling Research at UBC, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C, Canada.
Djavad Mowafaghian Centre for Brain Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C, Canada.
BMC Psychol. 2025 Apr 30;13(1):459. doi: 10.1186/s40359-025-02766-1.
Loot boxes are randomized reward mechanics in modern video games that share features with conventional gambling products. Research studies have begun to test longitudinal patterns ("migration") from engagement with loot boxes to gambling behavior. This study investigated such effects at a 6-month follow-up in an online sample of young adults that play video games (aged 19-25) from British Columbia, Canada.
Participants were stratified into two subgroups at their baseline assessment: 83 reported they did not currently gamble and 43 reported they currently gamble, after cleaning. At baseline, participants provided responses to the Risky Loot Box Index (RLI) and estimates of their past year spending on both randomized (i.e., loot boxes) and non-randomized ("direct purchase") microtransactions. Microtransaction spending and RLI scores at baseline were tested as predictors of self-identified gambling initiation and spend at follow-up. We tested a set of frequentist regressions and a corresponding set of Bayesian regressions.
At baseline, participants who reported gambling showed higher levels of engagement with both randomized and non-randomized microtransactions. Among non-gambling participants at baseline, loot box spending and RLI predicted gambling initiation at the follow-up, in a Bayesian logistic regression with informed priors. Loot box spending and RLI at baseline predicted gambling expenditure at follow-up, in both the frequentist and Bayesian linear regressions. Spending on direct purchase microtransactions did not predict gambling initiation in either set of models when controlling for loot box spending, underscoring the role of randomized rewards.
These data provide further prospective evidence for gambling 'migration' in a sample recruited in Western Canada, indicating that young adults who spend money on loot boxes are at elevated risk for real-money gambling.
开箱机制是现代电子游戏中的随机奖励机制，与传统赌博产品有共同特征。研究已开始测试从参与开箱机制到赌博行为的纵向模式（“迁移”）。本研究在加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省19至25岁玩电子游戏的年轻成年人在线样本中，进行了为期6个月的随访，调查了此类影响。
在基线评估时，参与者被分为两个亚组：经过清理后，83人报告他们目前不赌博，43人报告他们目前赌博。在基线时，参与者对风险开箱指数（RLI）做出回应，并估计他们过去一年在随机（即开箱）和非随机（“直接购买”）微交易上的支出。将基线时的微交易支出和RLI分数作为随访时自我认定的赌博开始和支出的预测指标进行测试。我们测试了一组频率主义回归和一组相应的贝叶斯回归。
在基线时，报告赌博的参与者在随机和非随机微交易方面的参与度更高。在基线时不赌博的参与者中，在有先验信息的贝叶斯逻辑回归中，开箱支出和RLI预测了随访时的赌博开始。在频率主义和贝叶斯线性回归中，基线时的开箱支出和RLI都预测了随访时的赌博支出。在控制开箱支出时，直接购买微交易的支出在任何一组模型中都不能预测赌博开始，这突出了随机奖励的作用。
这些数据为加拿大西部招募的样本中的赌博“迁移”提供了进一步的前瞻性证据，表明在开箱上花钱的年轻成年人进行真钱赌博的风险更高。
