Hansen-Lewis Jamie, Marcus Michelle
University of California, Davis.
Vanderbilt University and the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Am Econ J Econ Policy. 2025 Feb;17(1):37-69. doi: 10.1257/pol.20220626.
Maritime shipping emits as much fine particulate matter as half of global road traffic. We are the first to measure the consequences of US maritime emissions standards on air quality, human health, racial exposure disparities, and behavior. The introduction of US maritime emissions control areas significantly decreased fine particulate matter, low birth weight, and infant mortality. Yet, only about half of the forecasted fine particulate matter abatement was achieved by the policy. We show evidence consistent with behavioral responses among ship operators, other polluters, and individuals that muted the policy's impact, but were not incorporated in ex ante models.
海运排放的细颗粒物与全球道路交通排放总量的一半相当。我们率先衡量了美国海运排放标准对空气质量、人类健康、种族暴露差异和行为的影响。美国海运排放控制区的引入显著降低了细颗粒物、低出生体重和婴儿死亡率。然而，该政策仅实现了预测的细颗粒物减排量的约一半。我们展示的证据表明，船舶运营商、其他污染者和个人的行为反应减弱了该政策的影响，但这些反应并未纳入事前模型。
