Winebrake J J, Corbett J J, Green E H, Lauer A, Eyring V
Department of STS/Public Policy, 1356 Eastman Building, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York 14623, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Jul 1;43(13):4776-82. doi: 10.1021/es803224q.
Concerns about health effects due to emissions from ships have magnified international policy debate regarding low-sulfur fuel mandates for marine fuel. Policy discussions center on setting sulfur content levels and the geographic specification of low-sulfur fuel use. We quantify changes in premature mortality due to emissions from ships under several sulfur emissions control scenarios. We compare a 2012 No Control scenario (assuming 2.7% or 27 000 ppm S) with three emissions control scenarios. Two control scenarios represent cases where marine fuel is limited to 0.5% S (5000 ppm) and 0.1% S (1000 ppm) content, respectively, within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas. The third control scenario represents a global limit of 0.5% S. We apply the global climate model ECHAMSSy-MESSy1-MADE to geospatial emissions inventories to determine worldwide concentrations of particular matter (PM2.5) from ocean going vessels. Using those PM2.5 concentrations in cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models, we estimate annual premature mortality. Without control, our central estimate is approximately 87 000 premature deaths annually in 2012. Coastal area control scenarios reduce premature deaths by approximately 33 500 for the 0.5% case and approximately 43 500 for the 0.1% case. Where fuel sulfur content is reduced globally to 0.5% S, premature deaths are reduced by approximately 41 200. These results provide important support that global health benefits are associated with low-sulfur marine fuels, and allow for relative comparison of the benefits of alternative control strategies.
对船舶排放造成健康影响的担忧加剧了国际上关于海洋燃料低硫燃料指令的政策辩论。政策讨论集中在设定硫含量水平以及低硫燃料使用的地理规定上。我们对几种硫排放控制情景下船舶排放导致的过早死亡变化进行了量化。我们将2012年的无控制情景（假设硫含量为2.7%或27000 ppm）与三种排放控制情景进行了比较。两种控制情景分别代表沿海地区200海里范围内船用燃料硫含量限制为0.5%（5000 ppm）和0.1%（1000 ppm）的情况。第三种控制情景代表全球硫含量限制为0.5%。我们将全球气候模型ECHAMSSy - MESSy1 - MADE应用于地理空间排放清单，以确定远洋船舶排放的细颗粒物（PM2.5）在全球的浓度。利用这些PM2.5浓度以及心肺和肺癌浓度 - 风险函数和人口模型，我们估算了每年的过早死亡率。在无控制情景下，我们的核心估计是2012年每年约有87000例过早死亡。沿海地区控制情景中，0.5%硫含量的情况可使过早死亡减少约33500例，0.1%硫含量的情况可使过早死亡减少约43500例。在全球范围内将燃料硫含量降至0.5%时，过早死亡减少约41200例。这些结果为低硫船用燃料与全球健康益处相关提供了重要支持，并有助于对替代控制策略的益处进行相对比较。
