[荷兰早发性结直肠癌发病率上升：值得担忧吗？]
[Rise in incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer in the Netherlands: cause for concern?].
作者信息
Elferink Marloes A G, Galanos Laskarina J K, Sijtsma Femke P C, Bijlsma Maarten J, Buffart Tineke E, de Hingh Ignace H J T, van Leerdam Monique E, van Erning Felice N
机构信息
Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland, afd. Research & Development, Utrecht.
Contact:
出版信息
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2025 Apr 24;169:D8459.
OBJECTIVE
To describe trends in incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer in the Netherlands.
DESIGN
Observational research.
METHOD
We selected colorectal cancer patients aged 15 to 49 years, diagnosed between 1989-2023, from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). We calculated incidence rates and determined changes in trends using Joinpoint regression analyses. Furthermore, we made a prediction of the number of early-onset colorectal cancer patients in 2035.
RESULTS
The number of new early-onset colorectal cancer patients has increased; from 6.3 per 100,000 in 1998 to 9.3 per 100,000 in 2023 (Annual Percentage Change 1.41% (95% confidence interval 1.18-1.71)). This incidence is expected to increase further in the future, reaching between 629 and 871 cases by 2035.
CONCLUSION
There is an increase in the incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer in the Netherlands which appears to persist over the next 10 years. Further research is needed to identify the causes of this increase.
目的
描述荷兰早发性结直肠癌的发病率趋势。
设计
观察性研究。
方法
我们从荷兰癌症登记处（NCR）选取了1989年至2023年间诊断出的15至49岁的结直肠癌患者。我们计算了发病率，并使用Joinpoint回归分析确定趋势变化。此外，我们还对2035年早发性结直肠癌患者的数量进行了预测。
结果
新的早发性结直肠癌患者数量有所增加；从1998年的每10万人6.3例增至2023年的每10万人9.3例（年变化率1.41%（95%置信区间1.18 - 1.71））。预计未来这一发病率还会进一步上升，到2035年将达到629至871例。
结论
荷兰早发性结直肠癌的发病率有所上升，且在未来10年似乎会持续。需要进一步研究以确定这种上升的原因。
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