Schreuder K, Hollestein L, Nijsten T E C, Wakkee M, Louwman M W J
Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Br J Dermatol. 2022 Mar;186(3):476-484. doi: 10.1111/bjd.20871. Epub 2021 Dec 27.
Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most frequently diagnosed malignancy worldwide and an ever increasing annual incidence is observed. However, nationwide registries of BCCs are very rare, and often extrapolation of the data has been necessary to estimate the absolute number of diagnoses. As of September 2016, all histopathologically confirmed BCCs are registered in the Netherlands, due to developments in automatic notification and import in the Netherlands Cancer Registry. This offers the unique possibility to assess the nationwide population-based incidence of first and multiple BCCs.
To assess the nationwide incidence and trends of first and multiple BCCs in the Netherlands and to predict incidence rates up to 2029.
All patients with histopathologically confirmed BCC between 2001 and 2019 were selected from the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and trends were analysed with use of the estimated annual percentage change. Prediction of BCC incidence rates up to 2029 was based on a regression model.
In total, 601 806 patients were diagnosed with a first BCC over the period 2001-2019. The age-standardized incidence rates for both men and women with a first BCC increased over these years, from 157 to 304 and from 124 to 274 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. For male and female patients aged 30-39 years, decreases in annual incidences of -3·6% and -3·0%, respectively, were found in recent years. For patients aged 50 years or older an ever increasing trend was found. One-quarter of the patients with a first primary BCC developed one or more subsequent BCCs within 3 years. Increases in incidence of 30·4% (male) and 25·3% (female) are expected in the next 10 years.
BCC incidence has doubled over the past two decades. Trends have seemed to stabilize in recent years for patients aged < 50 years. This might be a first sign of a decreasing trend. The incidence continues to rise in patients aged 50 years and older. In the next decade a further increase in BCC incidence is expected.
基底细胞癌（BCC）是全球诊断最频繁的恶性肿瘤，且年发病率持续上升。然而，全国性的基底细胞癌登记非常少见，通常需要外推数据来估计诊断的绝对数量。截至2016年9月，由于荷兰癌症登记处自动通知和数据导入方面的进展，荷兰对所有经组织病理学确诊的基底细胞癌进行了登记。这为评估全国基于人群的初发和多发基底细胞癌发病率提供了独特的机会。
评估荷兰初发和多发基底细胞癌的全国发病率及趋势，并预测到2029年的发病率。
从基于人群的荷兰癌症登记处选取2001年至2019年间所有经组织病理学确诊基底细胞癌的患者。计算年龄标准化发病率，并使用估计的年百分比变化分析趋势。基于回归模型预测到2029年的基底细胞癌发病率。
2001年至2019年期间，共有601806例患者被诊断为初发基底细胞癌。这些年里，男性和女性初发基底细胞癌的年龄标准化发病率均有所上升，分别从每10万人年157例增至304例，以及从124例增至274例。近年来，30至39岁的男性和女性患者年发病率分别下降了3.6%和3.0%。50岁及以上患者呈现持续上升趋势。四分之一的初发原发性基底细胞癌患者在3年内出现了一个或多个后续基底细胞癌。预计未来10年男性发病率将上升30.4%，女性上升25.3%。
在过去二十年中，基底细胞癌发病率翻了一番。近年来，年龄小于50岁患者的发病率趋势似乎趋于稳定，这可能是下降趋势的首个迹象。50岁及以上患者的发病率持续上升。预计未来十年基底细胞癌发病率将进一步上升。
