Almasieh Kamran, Mohammadi Alireza
Department of Nature Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran.
Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 2;15(1):15359. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-00232-x.
Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) represent a significant global issue, leading to economic losses for humans due to the destruction of agricultural products and livestock. This study was conducted in southeastern Iran with two primary objectives: to identify the major environmental variables influencing spatial risk modeling and to pinpoint spatial risk patches and hotspots of agricultural damage caused by the Indian crested porcupine (ICP) in this region. An ensemble modeling technique was used to evaluate the spatial risk of agricultural damage caused by the ICP, drawing on 111 independent conflict records and nine environmental factors. The findings indicated that the distance to villages, orchard density, cropland density, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index emerged as the most significant variables in modeling the spatial risk of crop damage from the ICP in the study region. Nine spatial risk patches, comprising approximately 8% of the study area, were identified for crop damage attributed to the ICP. The three largest spatial risk patches, located in the west of the study area, accounted for 80% of all predicted crop damage patches caused by the ICP. Additionally, hotspots of agricultural damage were clustered in the western part of the study area. Conservation areas covered about 8% of the predicted spatial risk patches and 2.4% of the hotspots of agricultural damage, respectively. Urgent attention is needed to reduce human-ICP conflicts in the identified risk patches. We strongly recommend implementing fencing around cultivated lands and individual tree trunks, as well as enhancing local knowledge and insurance for agricultural products, to mitigate human-ICP conflicts in the study area.
人类与野生动物冲突（HWC）是一个重大的全球性问题，由于农产品和牲畜遭到破坏，给人类带来了经济损失。本研究在伊朗东南部开展，有两个主要目标：确定影响空间风险建模的主要环境变量，以及找出该地区印度冠豪猪（ICP）造成农业损害的空间风险斑块和热点区域。采用了一种集成建模技术来评估ICP造成农业损害的空间风险，该技术利用了111条独立的冲突记录和9个环境因素。研究结果表明，到村庄的距离、果园密度、农田密度和归一化植被指数是研究区域内模拟ICP造成作物损害空间风险的最显著变量。已识别出9个空间风险斑块，占研究区域的约8%，这些斑块是由ICP造成的作物损害所致。位于研究区域西部的三个最大的空间风险斑块，占ICP造成的所有预测作物损害斑块的80%。此外，农业损害热点集中在研究区域的西部。保护区分别覆盖了约8%的预测空间风险斑块和2.4%的农业损害热点区域。需要紧急关注，以减少已识别风险斑块内的人类与ICP冲突。我们强烈建议在耕地和单株树干周围设置围栏，并加强当地知识普及和农产品保险，以缓解研究区域内的人类与ICP冲突。
