Miles Jillian, Combemale Christophe, Karplus Valerie J, Pistorius P Chris
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 May 13;122(19):e2419294122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2419294122. Epub 2025 May 5.
Global efforts to mitigate climate change are increasing pressure on heavy manufacturing industries to decarbonize production. The iron and steel industry is responsible for 7% of CO emissions globally (2% in the United States) and is often a major employer in the regions where iron and steel is produced. Understanding the future prospects for workers in regions with high CO emitting industries-including impacts of phasing out or evolving such industries-will be critical for informing regional economic and clean energy strategies. We simulate the impact of an "in-place" transition that replaces today's integrated production with direct reduced iron (DRI) used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), using Southwest Pennsylvania as an application of our generalizable approach. Our results suggest that the integrated steelmaking workforce today has the skills, knowledge, and abilities (SKAs) to fill over 95% of all jobs required by DRI/EAF facilities, but the number of jobs is only 25% of those at integrated plants. We also find that some occupational groups have greater general transferability into the broader job market, while other groups, such as production workers, are ill-equipped today based on current SKAs to transition out of the iron and steel industry. Our methodology further suggests factors that limit transitions: Around 85% of occupations are more limited by missing skills, while 15% are more limited by insufficient wages. These results may help to improve the design of social policy and the targeting of retraining programs, while the simulation approach can be readily adapted for other regions and industries.
全球减缓气候变化的努力给重工业带来了越来越大的压力，要求其实现生产脱碳。钢铁行业的二氧化碳排放量占全球的7%（在美国占2%），并且在钢铁生产地区通常是主要雇主。了解高碳排放行业地区工人的未来前景，包括逐步淘汰或转型此类行业的影响，对于制定区域经济和清洁能源战略至关重要。我们以宾夕法尼亚州西南部为例，采用可推广的方法，模拟了一种“就地”转型的影响，即用直接还原铁（DRI）取代当今的综合生产，用于电弧炉（EAF）。我们的结果表明，如今的综合炼钢劳动力具备技能、知识和能力（SKAs），能够填补DRI/EAF设施所需所有工作岗位的95%以上，但岗位数量仅为综合工厂的25%。我们还发现，一些职业群体在更广泛的就业市场中具有更强的普遍可转移性，而其他群体，如生产工人，根据当前的SKAs，如今难以从钢铁行业转型。我们的方法还指出了限制转型的因素：约85%的职业受技能缺失的限制更大，而15%受工资不足的限制更大。这些结果可能有助于改进社会政策的设计和再培训计划的目标定位，同时这种模拟方法可以很容易地应用于其他地区和行业。
