Christensen Heidi Søgaard, Jensen Rikke Hedegaard, Nielsen Lars Hernández, Bertelsen Lise Dueholm, Teglgaard Christian, Bønløkke Jakob Hjort, Severinsen Marianne Tang, Bøgsted Martin
Center for Molecular Prediction in Inflammatory Bowel Disease, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.
Scand J Work Environ Health. 2025 Sep 1;51(5):449-453. doi: 10.5271/sjweh.4229. Epub 2025 May 6.
Previous studies mapping pleural mesothelioma in Denmark have found that the risk varies between Danish regions. However, evaluating disease risk for such relatively large geographical units ignores any heterogeneity within the unit and can thus diminish more local spikes in risk, missing smaller areas of excess risk. In this study, we examined the distribution of pleural mesothelioma in Denmark on an unprecedented detailed scale, mapping cases to each of the Danish parishes.
We identified individuals diagnosed with pleural mesothelioma between 1990 and 2021 in the Danish Cancer Registry. Considering age- and sex-standardized incidence rate ratios (IRR), we used a conditional autoregressive random effects model to smooth IRR across parishes. Parishes with a smoothed parish-to-national IRR >1.25 or >2.0 with a posterior probability of >95% were flagged as parishes with an excess risk of pleural mesothelioma.
We identified 3105 incident cases of pleural mesothelioma in the study period. A total of 74 and 14 parishes were flagged with IRR significantly above 1.25 and 2.0, respectively. These parishes had posterior mean smoothed IRR of 1.82-4.13.
We provided a detailed mapping of pleural mesothelioma cases in Denmark and found five distinct areas, each covering several parishes, with a significantly elevated risk. All these areas were in the proximity of previous asbestos-using industries.
丹麦此前对胸膜间皮瘤的研究发现，丹麦各地区的风险存在差异。然而，评估如此大地理单元的疾病风险会忽略单元内的任何异质性，从而可能减少局部风险峰值，遗漏较小的高风险区域。在本研究中，我们以前所未有的详细规模研究了丹麦胸膜间皮瘤的分布情况，将病例映射到丹麦的各个教区。
我们在丹麦癌症登记处识别出1990年至2021年间被诊断为胸膜间皮瘤的个体。考虑年龄和性别标准化发病率比（IRR），我们使用条件自回归随机效应模型对各教区的IRR进行平滑处理。平滑后的教区与全国IRR>1.25或>2.0且后验概率>95%的教区被标记为胸膜间皮瘤风险过高的教区。
在研究期间，我们识别出3105例胸膜间皮瘤新发病例。分别有74个和14个教区的IRR显著高于1.25和2.0。这些教区的平滑后平均IRR为1.82 - 4.13。
我们提供了丹麦胸膜间皮瘤病例的详细分布图，发现了五个不同的区域，每个区域覆盖几个教区，风险显著升高。所有这些区域都靠近以前使用石棉的工业场所。
