立陶宛2017年提高酒精消费税的投资回报率分析。

A return on investment analysis for the 2017 increase in alcohol excise taxation in Lithuania.

作者信息

Rehm Jürgen, Rovira Pol, Hassan Ahmed S, de Oliveira Claire, Lange Shannon, Thompson Mark J, Tamutienė Ilona, Liutkutė-Gumarov Vaida, Galkus Lukas, Štelemėkas Mindaugas

机构信息

Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.

Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.

出版信息

Addiction. 2025 Oct;120(10):2094-2104. doi: 10.1111/add.70083. Epub 2025 May 6.

DOI:10.1111/add.70083

PMID:40329451

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12426354/

Abstract

AIMS

To conduct a return on investment analysis of Lithuania's 2017 increase in alcohol excise taxation of 112% for beer, 111% for wine, and 23% for ethyl alcohol (spirits), resulting in a marked decrease in alcohol affordability.

METHODS

Economic analyses based on costs of the increased taxation and economic benefits derived from a societal perspective. Costs were measured according to World Health Organization standards, based on Lithuanian public data. Benefits were derived from the difference of direct (healthcare, childcare, legal) and indirect costs between 12 months pre- and post-enactment of the policy. All costs and benefits were expressed in 2023 Euros (€).

RESULTS

Overall, there were net benefits from reductions in productivity losses and increases in tax revenue. Tax revenue increased by 20%, or more than €100 million, in the first-year post enactment, and productivity losses decreased over the same time period by about €35.3 million (95% confidence interval [CI]: -51.9 to -17.1; proportionally -7%; 95% CI: -11.0% to -4.0%), the latter based on marked reductions in premature mortality in all alcohol-attributable causes of death. In addition, healthcare costs decreased by about €3.8 million (95% CI: -8.4 to +0.1; proportionally -5%; 95% CI: -11.0% to +0.1%). On the other hand, childcare and legal costs increased compared with the year before, by €5.3 million (no 95% CI possible; proportionally: +7%) and €4.6 million (95% CI: +0.2 to +8.0; proportionally +5%; 95% CI: +0.3 to +8.7%), respectively. The final return on investment was 420 to 1, i.e. for each Euro invested, the return was €420. In the sensitivity analyses, the return on investment varied between 292 to 1 and 530 to 1, meaning that all assumptions resulted in a very positive return.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in excise taxation for alcohol on March 1, 2017 in Lithuania created a large return on investment and reduced alcohol-attributable mortality and hospitalizations.

摘要

目的

对立陶宛2017年提高酒精消费税进行投资回报率分析，啤酒消费税提高112%，葡萄酒消费税提高111%，乙醇（烈酒）消费税提高23%，这导致酒精可承受性显著下降。

方法

基于税收增加成本和从社会角度得出的经济效益进行经济分析。成本根据世界卫生组织标准，依据立陶宛公共数据进行衡量。效益源自政策颁布前12个月与颁布后直接（医疗保健、儿童保育、法律方面）和间接成本的差异。所有成本和效益均以2023欧元表示。

结果

总体而言，生产力损失减少和税收增加带来了净效益。政策颁布后的第一年，税收增加了20%，即超过1亿欧元，同时同一时期生产力损失减少了约3530万欧元（95%置信区间[CI]：-5190万至-1710万；按比例-7%；95%CI：-11.0%至-4.0%），后者基于所有酒精所致死因的过早死亡率显著降低。此外，医疗保健成本减少了约380万欧元（95%CI：-840万至+10万；按比例-5%；95%CI：-11.0%至+0.1%）。另一方面，儿童保育和法律成本与前一年相比有所增加，分别增加了530万欧元（无95%CI）和460万欧元（95%CI：+20万至+800万；按比例+5%；95%CI：+0.3%至+8.7%）。最终投资回报率为420比1，即每投资1欧元，回报为420欧元。在敏感性分析中，投资回报率在292比1至530比1之间变化，这意味着所有假设都产生了非常积极的回报。