Chen Annan, Zhao Chuanfeng, Zhang Haotian, Yang Yikun, Li Jing, Yu Yan, Zhang Qinghong, Li Jiefeng
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Natl Sci Rev. 2025 Mar 27;12(6):nwaf116. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwaf116. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Clouds and surface albedo significantly affect the energy balance on Earth. With the snow/ice melting in the Arctic, an understanding of how this impacts short-wave cloud radiative effects (CRE) remains a critical, yet poorly understood, question. We analysed snow/ice coverage (SIC) changes and their impact on the CRE in the Arctic from the past to the present and to future scenarios. From 2000 to 2020, the SIC decreased by -0.058/decade, leading to CRE changes (∆CRE) at the top of the atmosphere and surface by -1.25 ± 0.49 and -0.21 ± 0.20 W/m²/decade, with an average reduction in the sea ice melting rate ([Formula: see text]) of 3.45 cm/year. The sea ice coverage and the CRE remained relatively stable from 1850 to 1915, followed by dramatic declines in both sea ice coverage and CRE under both 245 and 585 shared socio-economic pathways post-2015. The snow/ice loss amplifies the cloud-induced short-wave cooling effect, partly slowing further melting yet not preventing overall snow/ice loss.
云层和地表反照率对地球的能量平衡有显著影响。随着北极地区冰雪融化，了解这如何影响短波云辐射效应（CRE）仍然是一个关键但尚未得到充分理解的问题。我们分析了从过去到现在以及未来情景下北极地区冰雪覆盖（SIC）的变化及其对CRE的影响。2000年至2020年，SIC以-0.058/十年的速率下降，导致大气顶层和地表的CRE变化（∆CRE）分别为-1.25±0.49和-0.21±0.20W/m²/十年，海冰融化速率（[公式：见原文]）平均每年降低3.45厘米。1850年至1915年期间，海冰覆盖和CRE相对稳定，2015年后在245和585共享社会经济路径下，海冰覆盖和CRE均急剧下降。冰雪流失加剧了云引起的短波冷却效应，部分减缓了进一步融化，但无法阻止整体冰雪流失。
