Zhang Rongxiang, Fan Siyue, Zhu Chenyang, Chen Shiqi, Tian Feng, Huang Pingping, Chen Yuan
Xiamen Cardiovascular Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Fujian Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Xiamen, China.
School of Nursing, Fujian University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Fuzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2025 May 7;20(5):e0323374. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0323374. eCollection 2025.
This study analyzes the global burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) related to low physical activity from 1990 to 2021, focusing on spatiotemporal changes.
Using data from the GBD study, we examined trends in CVD burden linked to low physical activity, including mortality counts, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability rates (ASDR). Decomposition analysis was used to identify key drivers of these changes, and frontier analysis visualized each country's potential to reduce the burden. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast the burden from 2022 to 2036.
In 2021, approximately 370,000 deaths globally were attributed to CVD due to low physical activity. The ASMR and ASDR for CVD were 4.53 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 1.52 to 8.05) and 85.95 (95% UI: 35.25 to 140.65), respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden increased, particularly in regions with a middle socio-demographic index, driven by aging populations and population growth. The ASMR is projected to decrease to 3.49 per 100,000 by 2036.
Low physical activity is a major contributor to CVD-related mortality and disability worldwide. Public health interventions aimed at increasing physical activity, especially in regions with rising burdens, are essential to reduce the global CVD burden.
本研究分析了1990年至2021年与低体力活动相关的心血管疾病（CVD）的全球负担，重点关注时空变化。
利用全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，我们研究了与低体力活动相关的心血管疾病负担趋势，包括死亡人数、伤残调整生命年（DALY）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化伤残率（ASDR）。分解分析用于确定这些变化的关键驱动因素，前沿分析直观展示了每个国家减轻负担的潜力。使用自回归积分移动平均模型预测2022年至2036年的负担。
2021年，全球约37万例死亡归因于低体力活动导致的心血管疾病。心血管疾病的年龄标准化死亡率和年龄标准化伤残率分别为每10万人4.53例（95%不确定区间：1.52至8.05）和85.95（95%不确定区间：35.25至140.65）。从1990年到2021年，全球负担增加，特别是在社会人口统计学指数中等的地区，这是由人口老龄化和人口增长推动的。预计到2036年，年龄标准化死亡率将降至每10万人3.49例。
低体力活动是全球心血管疾病相关死亡率和残疾的主要促成因素。旨在增加体力活动的公共卫生干预措施，特别是在负担不断上升的地区，对于减轻全球心血管疾病负担至关重要。
