2019 年全球 204 个国家和地区归因于高温的心血管疾病全球负担。
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to High Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories from 1990 to 2019.
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, Hubei, China.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou 221004, Jiangsu, China.
出版信息
Biomed Environ Sci. 2023 Mar 20;36(3):222-230. doi: 10.3967/bes2023.025.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to estimate spatiotemporal variations of global heat-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden from 1990 to 2019.
METHODS
Data on the burden of heat-related CVD were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify heat-induced CVD burden. We calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALY rate (ASDR) per 100,000 population to compare this burden across regions. Generalized linear models were applied to evaluate estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The correlation between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rate was measured using the Spearman rank test.
RESULTS
Heat-induced CVD caused approximately 90 thousand deaths worldwide in 2019. Global ASMR and ASDR of heat-related CVD in 2019 were 1.17 [95% confidence interval ( ): 0.13-1.98] and 25.59 (95% : 2.07-44.17) per 100,000 population, respectively. The burden was significantly increased in middle and low-SDI regions and slightly decreased in high-SDI regions from 1990 to 2019. ASMR showed an upward trend, with the most considerable increase in low-latitude countries. We observed a negative correlation between SDI and EAPC in ASMR ( = -0.57, < 0.01) and ASDR ( = -0.59, < 0.01) among 204 countries.
CONCLUSION
Heat-attributable CVD burden substantially increased in most developing countries and tropical regions.
目的
本研究旨在估算 1990 年至 2019 年期间全球与热相关的心血管疾病（CVD）负担的时空变化。
方法
与热相关的 CVD 负担数据来自 2019 年全球疾病负担研究。死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALY）用于量化热诱发 CVD 负担。我们计算了每 10 万人的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和 DALY 率（ASDR），以比较各地区的负担。应用广义线性模型评估 1990 年至 2019 年的时间趋势的估计年百分比变化（EAPC）。使用 Spearman 秩检验测量社会人口指数（SDI）与年龄标准化率之间的相关性。
结果
2019 年，全球约有 9 万人死于热诱发的 CVD。2019 年全球与热相关的 CVD 的 ASMR 和 ASDR 分别为每 10 万人 1.17（95%置信区间：0.13-1.98）和 25.59（95%：2.07-44.17）。1990 年至 2019 年，中低 SDI 地区的负担显著增加，高 SDI 地区略有减少。ASMR 呈上升趋势，低纬度国家的增幅最大。我们观察到 SDI 与 ASMR（ = -0.57， < 0.01）和 ASDR（ = -0.59， < 0.01）的 EAPC 之间存在负相关，在 204 个国家中。
结论
在大多数发展中国家和热带地区，与热相关的 CVD 负担显著增加。
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