Dong Xuede, Gong Jirui, Zhang Weiyuan, Zhang Siqi, Yang Guisen, Yan Chenyi, Wang Ruijing, Zhang Shangpeng, Wang Tong, Yu Yaohong, Xie Qin
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, MOE Engineering Research Center of Desertification and Blown-sand Control, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, MOE Engineering Research Center of Desertification and Blown-sand Control, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jun;385:125652. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125652. Epub 2025 May 6.
Climate change is exerting severe pressure on terrestrial biodiversity. It is essential to clarify how vulnerabilities to climate change differ among taxonomic groups to mitigate biodiversity loss. Conservation planning should aim to minimize additional threats while maximizing the opportunities that climate change offers. In this study, we used species distribution models to simulate the current and future (2050s) suitable distributions of Chinese mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds, and plants. We analyzed the climate change vulnerability across these taxonomic groups and identified conservation priorities based on the vulnerable and opportunity areas that will result from climate change. By the 2050s, the losses of current habitat suitable for amphibians, mammals, reptiles, birds, and plants will reach 26.8 %, 16.8 %, 13.8 %, 11.9 %, and 10.0 %, respectively, indicating high vulnerability to climate change. The relative loss of suitable habitat is influenced by the threat status of species. Spatially, the areas of China with the highest vulnerability to climate change are mainly distributed in the north, northwest, and Qinghai-Tibet regions, whereas high-opportunity areas are mainly in the south. Areas with high opportunity and vulnerability will together account for 11.8 % of land area in China and represent conservation priorities for reducing species extinction. However, provinces with large priority areas will have lower human development and human footprint indexes, which will challenge the successful implementation of conservation efforts. Our results highlight the different responses of different Chinese taxonomic groups to climate change and will guide the selection of crucial areas for reducing species extinction risk.
气候变化正在对陆地生物多样性施加巨大压力。明确不同分类群对气候变化的脆弱性差异对于减轻生物多样性丧失至关重要。保护规划应旨在将额外威胁降至最低，同时最大限度地利用气候变化带来的机遇。在本研究中，我们使用物种分布模型来模拟中国哺乳动物、爬行动物、两栖动物、鸟类和植物当前以及未来（2050年代）的适宜分布。我们分析了这些分类群的气候变化脆弱性，并根据气候变化导致的脆弱和机遇区域确定了保护优先级。到2050年代，当前适合两栖动物、哺乳动物、爬行动物、鸟类和植物生存的栖息地损失将分别达到26.8%、16.8%、13.8%、11.9%和10.0%，这表明它们对气候变化高度脆弱。适宜栖息地的相对损失受物种受威胁状况的影响。在空间上，中国对气候变化最脆弱的地区主要分布在北方、西北和青藏高原地区，而高机遇地区主要在南方。高机遇和高脆弱地区将占中国陆地面积的11.8%，是减少物种灭绝的保护重点。然而，优先区域较大的省份人类发展和人类足迹指数较低，这将对保护工作的成功实施构成挑战。我们的研究结果突出了中国不同分类群对气候变化的不同响应，并将指导关键区域的选择，以降低物种灭绝风险。
