Popescu Viorel D, Rozylowicz Laurenţiu, Cogălniceanu Dan, Niculae Iulian Mihăiţă, Cucu Adina Livia
Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada ; Centre for Environmental Research (CCMESI), University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania.
PLoS One. 2013 Nov 4;8(11):e79330. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0079330. eCollection 2013.
Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.
快速的气候变化是生物多样性面临的最大威胁之一，导致许多物种数量减少和灭绝。范围转移是一种关键应对方式，但在许多情况下与当前保护区的范围不相容。在本研究中，我们使用集合物种分布模型来确定罗马尼亚21种爬行动物和16种两栖动物在2020年代和2050年代时间范围内，在三种排放情景（A1B = 一体化世界，快速经济增长；A2A = 分化世界，快速经济增长[现实情景]；B2A = 区域发展，环境友好情景）以及无扩散和有限扩散假设下的范围变化。然后，我们使用不可替代分析来测试“自然2000”网络实现保护目标的有效性。在所有情景和时间范围内，90%的物种范围收缩（在2020年代的B2A情景下损失最大，在2050年代的A1B情景下损失最大），4种爬行动物物种范围扩大。预计到2050年代，2种爬行动物和2种两栖动物将完全失去气候空间。目前，35个物种未达到保护目标（在保护区内的代表性>40%），但预计在未来气候条件下，4 - 14个物种将达到该目标，在有限扩散情景下代表性更高。阿尔卑斯和草原 - 黑海生物地理区域具有最高的不可替代价值，是许多爬行动物和两栖动物的气候避难所。由于范围急剧收缩与向现有保护区的范围转移之间的相互作用，“自然2000”网络在未来实现爬行类和两栖类动物保护目标方面表现更好。因此，罗马尼亚针对爬行类和两栖类动物的保护行动需要侧重于：（1）建设阿尔卑斯和草原 - 黑海生物地理区域保护区的机构能力，以及（2）通过改善保护区外，特别是传统管理景观和废弃农田中爬行类和两栖类动物的保护状况，促进自然范围转移。
