Wang Yihan, Wen Zongguo, Xu Mao, Doh Dinga Christian
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Research Center for Industry of Circular Economy, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 7;16(1):4251. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59205-3.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has substantial potential for deep decarbonization of the steel sector. However, long-term transformations within this sector lead to significant changes in steel units, posing challenges for CCS deployment. Here, we integrate sector-level transformation pathways by 2060 to simulate the distribution of China's steel units and generate optimal CCS deployment schemes using a source-sink matching model. Results indicate that CCS accounts for 31.4-40.7% of carbon mitigation effects in China's steel sector by 2060. Following the sector-level pathways, over 650 steel units will either be eliminated or retrofitted. The optimal CCS deployment schemes can achieve carbon mitigation effects of 472.4-609.6 Mt at levelized costs of 187.4-193.5 Chinese Yuan t CO, demonstrating cost-effectiveness under future carbon price levels. Nevertheless, the proposed schemes will lead to energy and water consumption of 951.0-1427.3 PJ and 1.60-1.69 million m, respectively, posing a risk of resource scarcity. These insights inform the development of CCS implementation strategies in China's steel sector and beyond, promoting deep decarbonization throughout society.
碳捕获与封存（CCS）在钢铁行业深度脱碳方面具有巨大潜力。然而，该行业的长期转型会导致钢铁生产单元发生重大变化，给CCS的部署带来挑战。在此，我们整合了到2060年的行业层面转型路径，以模拟中国钢铁生产单元的分布情况，并使用源汇匹配模型生成最佳的CCS部署方案。结果表明，到2060年，CCS在中国钢铁行业的碳减排效果中占比31.4% - 40.7%。按照行业层面的路径，超过650个钢铁生产单元将被淘汰或进行改造。最佳的CCS部署方案可实现472.4 - 609.6 Mt的碳减排效果，平准化成本为187.4 - 193.5元/t CO₂，在未来碳价格水平下显示出成本效益。尽管如此，所提出的方案将分别导致951.0 - 1427.3 PJ的能源消耗和160 - 169万立方米的水资源消耗，存在资源短缺风险。这些见解为中国及其他地区钢铁行业CCS实施策略的制定提供了参考，推动全社会的深度脱碳。
