Predictors of alcohol use disorder risk in young adults: Direct and indirect psychological paths through binge drinking.

Alcohol-use disorders (AUD) risk is highly prevalent in university students, and is associated with both intraindividual (e.g., metacognitions, personality traits) and interindividual (e.g., social motives, drinking identity, drinking norms) psychological factors. Binge drinking (BD) also constitutes a widespread drinking pattern in youth, distinct from AUD risk and mainly predicted by interindividual factors. As BD is itself a risk factor for AUD, we tested a dual psychological path model to AUD risk, combining a direct path (including intra/interindividual factors independent from BD) with an indirect path (where interindividual factors increase AUD risk through BD). We assessed a large range of psychological factors predicting BD and AUD risk in an online survey among 2026 university students (Mage = 20.46; SD = 2.82; 67.42% of women). We tested the direct and indirect (via BD) effects of these psychological factors on three subdimensions of AUDIT (alcohol intake, dependence symptoms, and alcohol-related problems) through a multivariate mediation model using percentile bootstrapped estimates. Support for the dual-path model to risk of AUD emerged from the results, comprising a direct path mainly influenced by intra-individual factors unrelated to BD (e.g., coping motives, depression symptoms, and uncontrollability beliefs), and an indirect BD-mediated path mainly influenced by inter-individual factors (e.g., social motives, enhancement motives, drinking norms) through BD. This new dual-path conceptualization combining direct/intra-individual and indirect/inter-individual risk factors identifies key psychological determinants of AUD risk in youth and offers new prevention avenues for AUD risk.