Wang Huiping, Guo Xinge
Western Collaborative Innovation Research Center for Energy Economy and Regional Development, Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an, 710100, China.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2025 May 9;20(1):7. doi: 10.1186/s13021-025-00301-8.
In this paper, three novel grey breakpoint prediction models are proposed based on calculating the development coefficient and grey action of grey prediction models after fuzzy breakpoints, unifying the calculation methods for parameter estimation and the relevant time-response equations, and using the particle swarm optimisation algorithm to optimise the two-stage background values. Finally, the novel grey breakpoint prediction models are used to simulate and forecast the CO emissions in BRICS countries. We can see that by setting time breakpoints and fuzzy breakpoint intervals, the novel methods successfully detect abrupt changes in the system and achieve accurate predictions, thus improving the accuracy and applicability of the grey model. The new grey breakpoint prediction models demonstrate better estimation in all cases in CO emissions forecasting. The projections show that between 2022 and 2025, CO emissions in Brazil and South Africa will decrease each year, while CO emissions in China, Russia and India will increase each year, but the upwards trend in India shows signs of slowing.
计算模糊断点后灰色预测模型的发展系数和灰色作用量，统一参数估计的计算方法及相关时间响应方程，并使用粒子群优化算法对两阶段背景值进行优化。最后，利用新型灰色断点预测模型对金砖国家的一氧化碳排放量进行模拟和预测。我们可以看到，通过设置时间断点和模糊断点区间，新方法成功检测到系统中的突变并实现了准确预测，从而提高了灰色模型的准确性和适用性。新型灰色断点预测模型在一氧化碳排放预测的所有情况下均表现出更好的估计效果。预测显示，2022年至2025年期间，巴西和南非的一氧化碳排放量将逐年下降，而中国、俄罗斯和印度的一氧化碳排放量将逐年上升，但印度的上升趋势有放缓迹象。
