Du Jiayi, Jia Chao, Ding Yue, Yang Xiao, Feng Keyin, Wei Maojie
Institute of Marine Science and Technology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China.
Institute of Marine Science and Technology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China; Shandong Engineering Research Center for Environmental Protection and Remediation on Groundwater, Jinan 250014, China.
J Hazard Mater. 2025 Aug 15;494:138412. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.138412. Epub 2025 May 4.
Wetlands serve as crucial water reservoirs, providing essential water resources for the surrounding regions. However, elevated ion concentrations in wetland groundwater may pose health risks to local populations. This study focused on Judian Lake and its adjacent areas, proposing an innovative multimodel coupled uncertainty propagation framework to establish an integrated "process characterization-risk quantification-source management" methodology. The Entropy-Weighted Water Quality Index (EWQI), deterministic and Monte Carlo-based probabilistic health risk assessments, Principal Component Analysis-Absolute Principal Component Score-Multiple Linear Regression (PCA-APCS-MLR), and Self-Organizing Map-K-means (SOM-K-means) clustering were used. Results indicated that over 50 % of the water resources in the study area were suitable for drinking and irrigation purposes. F, Mn, NO, and NO posed non-carcinogenic risks to both adults and children, with NO being the most severe. Monte Carlo indicated that for high-concentration pollutants (Mn, NO, and NO), source control measures should prioritize concentration reduction, whereas for low-concentration pollutants (F), minimizing exposure pathways was necessary. The PCA-APCS-MLR model suggested that NO primarily originated from agricultural activities, while F mainly came from the weathering and dissolution of fluorite. SOM-K-means divided the study into four clusters, of which cluster III was the most polluted.
湿地是重要的水源地，为周边地区提供必需的水资源。然而，湿地地下水中升高的离子浓度可能会给当地居民带来健康风险。本研究聚焦于巨淀湖及其周边地区，提出了一种创新的多模型耦合不确定性传播框架，以建立一个综合的“过程表征-风险量化-源头管理”方法。使用了熵权水质指数（EWQI）、确定性和基于蒙特卡洛的概率健康风险评估、主成分分析-绝对主成分得分-多元线性回归（PCA-APCS-MLR）以及自组织映射-K均值（SOM-K均值）聚类。结果表明，研究区域内超过50%的水资源适合饮用和灌溉。氟、锰、亚硝酸根和硝酸根对成人和儿童均构成非致癌风险，其中亚硝酸根最为严重。蒙特卡洛分析表明，对于高浓度污染物（锰、亚硝酸根和硝酸根），源头控制措施应优先降低浓度，而对于低浓度污染物（氟），则有必要尽量减少暴露途径。PCA-APCS-MLR模型表明，亚硝酸根主要源于农业活动，而氟主要来自萤石的风化和溶解。SOM-K均值将研究区域划分为四个聚类，其中聚类III污染最为严重。
