Zeraatkar Amin, Hatami Elham, Nasab Farzaneh Khajoei, Hassan Najmaldin Ezaldin
Research Division of Natural Resources Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center (AREEO) Shahrekord Iran.
Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Razi University Kermanshah Iran.
Ecol Evol. 2025 May 9;15(5):e71318. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71318. eCollection 2025 May.
Woody plants offer valuable services to ecosystems, including providing useful products, stabilizing ecosystems, and mitigating climate and pollution effects. However, they face significant abiotic and biotic stresses, with climate change being the most critical challenge. It is essential to understand that reducing populations of woody species, particularly those found only in a specific area, can have severe and irreversible effects on the entire ecosystem. Therefore, exploring the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of endemic woody species is an appealing subject for conservation researchers. This study investigates how climate change affects the distribution of three endemic species of woody plants in the genus in Iran. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the data, and the results showed that the model was effective for predicting the impact of climate change on the plants (AUC ≥ 0.9). The distribution of was significantly affected by solar radiation, Precipitation of Wettest Month, sand, and silt content. 's distribution was impacted by Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Precipitation of Driest Month, and Cation Exchange Capacity, while was most affected by Precipitation Seasonality, Precipitation of Driest Quarter, and Isothermality. According to the findings, the distribution of these species is expected to decrease in the 2050s and 2070s due to climate change, based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. These findings can be useful for developing strategies to manage the impacts of climate change on these species.
木本植物为生态系统提供了宝贵的服务，包括提供有用的产品、稳定生态系统以及减轻气候和污染影响。然而，它们面临着重大的非生物和生物胁迫，其中气候变化是最关键的挑战。必须认识到，减少木本物种的数量，特别是那些仅在特定区域发现的物种，可能会对整个生态系统产生严重且不可逆转的影响。因此，探索气候变化对特有木本物种分布的潜在影响是保护研究人员感兴趣的课题。本研究调查了气候变化如何影响伊朗该属三种特有木本植物的分布。使用MaxEnt模型分析数据，结果表明该模型在预测气候变化对这些植物的影响方面是有效的（AUC≥0.9）。[此处原文缺失一种植物名称]的分布受到太阳辐射、最湿润月降水量、沙子和粉砂含量的显著影响。[此处原文缺失一种植物名称]的分布受到最冷月平均温度、最干燥月降水量和阳离子交换容量的影响，而[此处原文缺失一种植物名称]受降水季节性、最干燥季度降水量和等温性的影响最大。根据研究结果，基于RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景，由于气候变化，这些物种的分布预计在2050年代和2070年代将会减少。这些发现对于制定应对气候变化对这些物种影响的管理策略可能是有用的。
