Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, 38156-8-8349, Iran.
Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 13;14(1):3641. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-53405-5.
Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 5), edaphic (n = 1), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the most significant variable affecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor influencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their significant habitat loss in the future.
在过去几十年中，气候变化导致物种栖息地迅速而惊人地发生变化，造成大量物种灭绝，尤其是在敏感物种中。为了研究气候变化对物种分布的影响并评估栖息地适宜性，研究人员开发了物种分布模型 (SDM)，用于估计当前和未来的物种分布。在西亚，百里香属的物种如 T. fedtschenkoi、T. pubescens 和 T. transcaucasicus 富含百里香酚和香芹酚，通常用作草药茶、香料、调味剂和药用植物。本研究旨在使用 MaxEnt 模型在两个代表性浓度途径 (RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5) 下模拟这些 Thymus 物种在伊朗的分布，分别为 2050 年和 2070 年。目的是确定影响它们分布的关键生物气候（n=5）、土壤（n=1）和地形（n=3）变量，并预测在各种气候情景下它们的分布可能如何变化。研究结果表明，影响 T. fedtschenkoi 和 T. pubescens 分布的最重要变量是海拔高度，而影响 T. transcaucasicus 分布的主要因素是土壤有机碳含量。MaxEnt 模型的性能非常出色，所有曲线下面积 (AUC) 值都超过 0.9。根据预测，这三个百里香属物种在未来几年将经历负面积变化。这些结果可以作为制定适应性管理策略的有用工具，旨在提高保护和可持续利用的水平，以应对全球气候变化。鉴于这三种百里香属物种未来的栖息地将大量丧失，应特别关注保护 T. fedtschenkoi、T. pubescens 和 T. transcaucasicus。
