The burden of ischemic heart disease among women of childbearing age in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections for the next 15 years.

BACKGROUND

There are no studies on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) among women of childbearing age (WCBA) in China. This study aims to describe the IHD burden among WCBA in China from 1990 to 2021, predict the trends over the next 15 years, and identify the contributing factors associated with IHD-related deaths.

METHODS

The data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021. The Direct age-standardized method was used to estimate the age-standardized (AS) prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), incidence rate (ASIR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of IHD among WCBA. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the Annual Percent Change and Average Annual Percent Change from 1990 to 2021. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to predict the trend over the next 15 years.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR and ASIR increased by 17.44% and 25.83%, culminating in 616.50 (95% UI, 498.42-762.38) and 79.93 (95% UI, 49.43-113.88) cases per 100,000 individuals. Conversely, the ASMR and ASDR declined to 5.17 (95% UI, 4.14-6.33) and 261.24 (95% UI, 212.03-318.03) cases per 100,000 individuals. Over the next 15 years, the ASPR is projected to increase by 25.74%, culminating in 775.20 (95% UI, 637.98-912.42) cases per 100,000 individuals. The main contributor to increased IHD-related deaths among WCBA in China was high low-density lipoprotein.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the significant decline in the ASMR and ASDR of IHD among WCBA in China over the last 30 years, the ASPR and ASIR continue to increase. Additionally, the ASPR is projected to rise over the next 15 years. These findings emphasize that effective measures and timely interventions are needed to reduce the disease burden.