Taherian Mohammad Reza, Maleki Farzad, Talebi Marziye, Varnosfaderani Mehran Rostami, Mirtorabi Seyed Davood, Forouzesh Mehdi, Nazari Seyed Saeed Hashemi
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Legal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran.
BMC Public Health. 2025 May 16;25(1):1808. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22905-y.
This study examines epidemiology and trend of mortality rates due to traffic accidents in Iran from 2006 to 2022.
Data were collected from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization and the Statistical Center of Iran. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated using direct standardization. A Latent Class Growth Mixture Model (LCGMM) was employed to evaluate trends and identify provinces with similar patterns.
From 2006 to 2022, Iran recorded 325,851 traffic accident deaths, with a median age of 34 years; 78.8% were male. Most deaths occurred on intercity roads (63.84%, n = 208,021), followed by urban roads (27.73%, n = 90,365) and rural roads (7.63%, n = 24,859). Mortality rates declined significantly from 38.86 per 100,000 in 2006 to 19.85 in 2017 but increased to 23.00 per 100,000 in 2022, underscoring a concerning public health issue. A reverse J-shaped trend was identified nationally using LCGMM, showing an initial decline (intercept: 48.13, SE = 1.32; slope: -3.67, SE = 0.34) followed by a significant upward trend (quadratic term: 0.14, SE = 0.02, p < 0.001). The quadratic term's highly significant p-value highlights the importance of this non-linear pattern. At the provincial level, six distinct mortality trend classes were identified, highlighting significant regional variations. Most provinces exhibited a reverse J-shaped pattern, except Sistan and Baluchestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, which showed U-shaped trends.
After a decade of decline (2006-2017), Iran's traffic fatalities resurged post-2017, potentially linked to economic strain, aging vehicle fleets, and inconsistent enforcement of safety regulations. Targeted interventions -subsidies for safer vehicles, infrastructure upgrades, and regional policies- are urgently needed to reverse this trend and align with global road safety goals.
本研究调查了2006年至2022年伊朗交通事故死亡率的流行病学特征和趋势。
数据收集自伊朗法定医学组织和伊朗统计中心。采用直接标准化法计算年龄标准化死亡率。使用潜在类别增长混合模型（LCGMM）评估趋势并识别具有相似模式的省份。
2006年至2022年，伊朗记录了325,851起交通事故死亡案例，中位年龄为34岁；78.8%为男性。大多数死亡发生在城际道路上（63.84%，n = 208,021），其次是城市道路（27.73%，n = 90,365）和农村道路（7.63%，n = 24,859）。死亡率从2006年的每10万人38.86例显著下降至2017年的每10万人19.85例，但在2022年又升至每10万人23.00例，凸显了一个令人担忧的公共卫生问题。使用LCGMM在全国范围内确定了一个倒J形趋势，显示出最初的下降（截距：48.13，标准误 = 1.32；斜率：-3.67，标准误 = 0.34），随后是显著的上升趋势（二次项：0.14，标准误 = 0.02，p < 0.001）。二次项的高度显著p值突出了这种非线性模式的重要性。在省级层面，识别出六个不同的死亡率趋势类别，凸显了显著的地区差异。除锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦省和科吉卢耶-博耶-艾哈迈德省呈现U形趋势外，大多数省份呈现倒J形模式。
在经历了十年的下降（2006 - 2017年）后，伊朗的交通死亡人数在2017年后再度上升，这可能与经济压力、车辆老旧以及安全法规执行不一致有关。迫切需要针对性的干预措施——对更安全车辆的补贴、基础设施升级和区域政策——以扭转这一趋势并符合全球道路安全目标。
