Badolato Luca
The Ohio State University.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2025 May 19:1-19. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2501315.
Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires-intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; or (4) to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires-intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.
生育目标指标是重要的人口统计学工具，但实证研究中不同结构的存在以及具有误导性的语言造成了混淆，生育意愿和生育意图常常被互换使用。生育意愿反映了生育子女的内在愿望，而生育意图反映的是实际计划。我通过考虑个体可能会：（1）；（2）；（3）；或（4）生育（更多）子女，来对生育意愿与生育意图之间的差距进行操作化定义。利用美国具有全国代表性的数据，并从生命历程和性别视角出发，我估算了男性和女性的总体水平、特定年龄和特定胎次的指标，并使用回归模型来确定生育意愿与生育意图差距的预测因素。这些分析澄清了不同测量方法所产生的混淆，鉴于近期生育率下降提供了见解，并揭示了在生育目标测量中考虑（或不考虑）不育状况的后果。
