Black Kevin, McCullagh Andrew, Redmond John, Blujdea Viorel N B, Pilli Roberto
FERS Ltd, Kilberry, Navan, Co Meath, Ireland.
Forest Service, Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Dublin, Ireland.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2025 May 21;20(1):10. doi: 10.1186/s13021-025-00302-7.
The Irish Forestry greenhouse gas (GHG) profile is undergoing a transition from a net sink to net emission because of persisting emissions from organic soils, an increase in harvest and shifts in the age class structure of plantation forests. The forestry GHG trend diverges from the required National and European Union (EU) policy pathway for land use land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture aimed at halving emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. A recalibrated version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Service (CBM-CFS3) was used to assess the impact of identified national forest policy measures on the forest GHG profile over the short to long term.
An analysis of projected scenarios revealed that, under current silvicultural practices and afforestation policies (with existing measures-WEMs), Irish forests will continue to be a long-term emission beyond 2070 unless harvest rates and management practices are adjusted to negate the adverse impact of emissions from organic soils and fluctuations in historic afforestation rates. The implementation of additional measures (WAM) suggests that the forest sink can be sustained if harvest rates exceed 75% of the net annual increment (NAI), additional afforestation targets are met and if plantation rotation age is increased. Although additional afforestation and a reduction in deforestation is required to meet long-term carbon-neutral goals, the implementation of these policies has a minimal short-term impact on the 2030 targets set out under the National Climate Change Plan (CAP 24) and the revised EU LULUCF regulation (841/2023).
The results show that the extension of rotation age and associated reductions in harvest levels will have the greatest short-term impact on climate change mitigation, which can be delivered at a negative marginal abatement cost. However, even if WAM forest measures are implemented, Ireland is unlikely to meet the National and EU LULUCF targets by 2030 because of a decreasing forest sink.
由于有机土壤持续排放、采伐量增加以及人工林年龄结构变化，爱尔兰林业温室气体（GHG）状况正在从净吸收向净排放转变。林业温室气体趋势偏离了国家和欧盟（EU）针对土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）以及农业制定的政策路径要求，这些政策旨在到2030年将排放量减半，并在2050年实现碳中和。使用加拿大森林服务局碳预算模型（CBM-CFS3）的重新校准版本来评估已确定的国家森林政策措施在短期到长期对森林温室气体状况的影响。
对预测情景的分析表明，在当前的造林实践和造林政策（采用现有措施 - WEMs）下，除非调整采伐率和管理实践以抵消有机土壤排放和历史造林率波动的不利影响，否则爱尔兰森林在2070年以后仍将长期排放温室气体。实施额外措施（WAM）表明，如果采伐率超过年净生长量（NAI）的75%、实现额外的造林目标并且增加人工林轮伐期，森林碳汇可以得到维持。尽管需要额外造林和减少森林砍伐以实现长期碳中和目标，但这些政策的实施对《国家气候变化计划》（CAP 24）和修订后的欧盟LULUCF法规（841/2023）规定的2030年目标的短期影响最小。
结果表明，延长轮伐期以及相应降低采伐水平对缓解气候变化具有最大的短期影响，并且可以以负边际减排成本实现。然而，即使实施了WAM森林措施，由于森林碳汇减少，爱尔兰到2030年也不太可能实现国家和欧盟LULUCF目标。
