Korosuo Anu, Pilli Roberto, Abad Viñas Raúl, Blujdea Viorel N B, Colditz Rene R, Fiorese Giulia, Rossi Simone, Vizzarri Matteo, Grassi Giacomo
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
Independent researcher providing service to the Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2023 Jul 30;18(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s13021-023-00234-0.
The European Union (EU) has committed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This requires a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensuring that any remaining emissions are balanced through CO removals. Forests play a crucial role in this plan: they are currently the main option for removing CO from the atmosphere and additionally, wood use can store carbon durably and help reduce fossil emissions. To stop and reverse the decline of the forest carbon sink, the EU has recently revised the regulation on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and set a target of - 310 Mt COe net removals for the LULUCF sector in 2030.
In this study, we clarify the role of common concepts in forest management - net annual increment, harvest and mortality - in determining the forest sink. We then evaluate to what extent the forest sink is on track to meet the climate goals of the EU. For this assessment we use data from the latest national GHG inventories and a forest model (Carbon Budget Model). Our findings indicate that on the EU level, the recent decrease in increment and the increase in harvest and mortality are causing a rapid drop in the forest sink. Furthermore, continuing the past forest management practices is projected to further decrease the sink. Finally, we discuss options for enhancing the sinks through forest management while taking into account adaptation and resilience.
Our findings show that the EU forest sink is quickly developing away from the EU climate targets. Stopping and reversing this trend requires rapid implementation of climate-smart forest management, with improved and more timely monitoring of GHG fluxes. This enhancement is crucial for tracking progress towards the EU's climate targets, where the role of forests has become - and is expected to remain - more prominent than ever before.
欧盟已承诺到2050年实现气候中和。这需要迅速减少温室气体排放，并确保任何剩余排放通过碳清除得以平衡。森林在该计划中发挥着关键作用：它们目前是从大气中清除碳的主要选择，此外，木材利用可以持久储存碳并有助于减少化石排放。为了阻止并扭转森林碳汇的下降趋势，欧盟最近修订了土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）法规，并设定了到2030年LULUCF部门净清除-3.1亿吨二氧化碳当量的目标。
在本研究中，我们阐明了森林管理中常见概念——年净增量、采伐和死亡率——在确定森林碳汇方面的作用。然后，我们评估森林碳汇在多大程度上有望实现欧盟的气候目标。为此评估，我们使用了最新国家温室气体清单数据和一个森林模型（碳预算模型）。我们的研究结果表明，在欧盟层面，近期增量的下降以及采伐和死亡率的上升正在导致森林碳汇迅速下降。此外，继续过去的森林管理做法预计将进一步减少碳汇。最后，我们讨论了在考虑适应和恢复力的同时通过森林管理增强碳汇的选项。
我们的研究结果表明，欧盟森林碳汇正在迅速偏离欧盟气候目标。阻止并扭转这一趋势需要迅速实施气候智能型森林管理，并改进和更及时地监测温室气体通量。这种增强对于跟踪实现欧盟气候目标的进展至关重要，在这一目标中，森林的作用已经——而且预计仍将——比以往任何时候都更加突出。
