Lau Stephan, Baumeister Roy Frederick
Federal University of Administrative Sciences, Berlin, Germany.
Department of Psychology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States.
Front Psychol. 2025 May 7;16:1544101. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1544101. eCollection 2025.
This essay argues that the concept of strict causal determinism (or "clockwork determinism"), while being a powerful doctrine to reduce uncertainty, is not compatible with the way psychology does science. Specifically, we argue that psychological explanations are necessarily incomplete, that the specification and measurement of variables will always contain variance, and that psychological experiments cannot guarantee the degree of control necessary for strict deterministic relationships. Further, we argue that typical psychological causes do not fit the scale of clockwork-deterministic explanations. It is important to note that these arguments are agnostic to the question of whether clockwork determinism exists or not. Even if the universe works strictly deterministically, psychological explanations and paradigms would remain incompatible with the requirements posed by clockwork determinism. We judge this not to be of any problem for a thriving psychological science, unless (young) scientists see clockwork determinism as their primary epistemological foundation.
本文认为,严格因果决定论(或“机械决定论”)的概念虽然是一种减少不确定性的有力学说,但与心理学开展科学研究的方式并不兼容。具体而言,我们认为心理学解释必然是不完整的,变量的具体说明和测量总会包含变异性,而且心理学实验无法保证严格决定论关系所需的控制程度。此外,我们认为典型的心理原因不符合机械决定论解释的尺度。需要注意的是,这些论点对于机械决定论是否存在的问题持不可知论态度。即使宇宙严格按照决定论运行,心理学解释和范式仍将与机械决定论提出的要求不相容。我们认为这对于蓬勃发展的心理学科学来说并非问题,除非(年轻)科学家将机械决定论视为其主要的认识论基础。