Ramsay Emma E, Faber Peter A, Fleming Genie M, Duffy Grant A, Agussalim Andi Zulkifli, Barker S Fiona, Saifuddaolah Maghfira, Taruc Ruzka R, Tela Autiko, Vamosi Revoni, Vilsoni Silvia Rosova, Chown Steven L
School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3800, Australia.
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore.
Environ Res Lett. 2025 Jun 1;20(6):064028. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/add751. Epub 2025 May 20.
Urban informal settlement residents are vulnerable to mosquito-borne diseases, but little is known about the specific drivers of risk, or how they differ, within the diversity of informal settlements globally. Here we aimed to identify key drivers of mosquito abundance in different urban informal settlements to inform upgrading programs. We developed a causal framework of mosquito risk and tested it in two distinct geographic settings: Makassar, Indonesia and Suva, Fiji. Using longitudinal mosquito trapping surveys in 24 informal settlements between 2018 and 2024 (totalling 1534 successful trap sets in Makassar and 1216 in Suva), we fitted causal models to infer the relationships between climatic, environmental and socioeconomic drivers and the abundance of two dominant mosquito species: and . Water supply and access, and variation in temperature and precipitation were key drivers of mosquito abundance in both informal settlement locations, but the direction of effects differed between vector species. Piped water supply in a settlement reduced the abundance of the dengue vector, but increased the abundance of Higher temperature and precipitation were associated with more in both geographic locations. By identifying the pathways through which changes in informal settlement environments are likely to alter mosquito risk we provide essential information to guide upgrading and resilience programs.
城市非正式住区居民易感染蚊媒疾病，但对于全球非正式住区多样性中风险的具体驱动因素以及它们之间的差异，我们知之甚少。在此，我们旨在确定不同城市非正式住区中蚊子数量的关键驱动因素，以为升级项目提供参考。我们构建了一个蚊子风险的因果框架，并在两个不同的地理环境中进行了测试：印度尼西亚的望加锡和斐济的苏瓦。通过在2018年至2024年期间对24个非正式住区进行纵向蚊虫诱捕调查（在望加锡共进行了1534次成功的诱捕，在苏瓦进行了1216次），我们拟合了因果模型，以推断气候、环境和社会经济驱动因素与两种主要蚊子种类（ 和 ）数量之间的关系。供水与获取情况，以及温度和降水的变化是两个非正式住区地点蚊子数量的关键驱动因素，但对不同病媒种类的影响方向有所不同。住区内的管道供水减少了登革热媒介（ ）的数量，但增加了（ ）的数量。在两个地理位置，较高的温度和降水都与更多的（ ）相关。通过确定非正式住区环境变化可能改变蚊子风险的途径，我们提供了重要信息，以指导升级和恢复力项目。
