Yang Yaqi, Wang Yiji
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Mental Health and Psychological Crisis Intervention, School of Psychology and Cognitive Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China.
NYU-ECNU Institute of Brain and Cognitive Science, New York University Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2025 May 27. doi: 10.1007/s00787-025-02754-1.
This study used a data-driven approach to elucidate the relative importance of child, maternal, and mother-child dyadic characteristics in predicting externalizing problems across two critical stages, preschool and preadolescence, that mark the development of externalizing problems. Data (N = 1,364) were collected through maternal reports and observations during preschool and preadolescence. Using the random forest algorithm in machine learning, the results showed that the predictive models differed between preschool and preadolescence. For preschool antecedents of externalizing problems, maternal characteristics, such as depressive symptoms, education, and sensitivity, emerged as the most highly ranked predictors, followed by mother-child dyadic characteristics. Moreover, for preadolescent antecedents of externalizing problems, mother-child dyadic characteristics, including conflict and positive relationship, were identified as the top predictors, with maternal characteristics playing a secondary role. While child characteristics were relatively less influential across both age groups, child negative reactivity emerged as a salient predictor during preadolescence. The findings contribute data-driven evidence to elucidate the relative importance of preschool and preadolescent antecedents of externalizing problems, with maternal characteristics playing a central role in early childhood and mother-child dynamics becoming most important during preadolescence. Interventions targeting externalizing problems should be developmentally sensitive, with preschool programs emphasizing maternal well-being and early relational foundations, while preadolescent programs prioritize strengthening the mother-child relationships and addressing dyadic challenges.
本研究采用数据驱动的方法，以阐明儿童、母亲及母子二元特征在预测外化问题跨两个关键阶段（即学前阶段和青春期前阶段，这两个阶段标志着外化问题的发展）中的相对重要性。通过母亲报告以及在学前阶段和青春期前阶段的观察收集数据（N = 1364）。使用机器学习中的随机森林算法，结果表明预测模型在学前阶段和青春期前阶段有所不同。对于外化问题的学前阶段前因，母亲特征，如抑郁症状、教育程度和敏感性，成为排名最高的预测因素，其次是母子二元特征。此外，对于外化问题的青春期前阶段前因，母子二元特征，包括冲突和积极关系，被确定为首要预测因素，母亲特征起次要作用。虽然儿童特征在两个年龄组中相对影响较小，但儿童消极反应性在青春期前阶段成为一个显著的预测因素。这些发现提供了数据驱动的证据，以阐明外化问题的学前阶段和青春期前阶段前因的相对重要性，母亲特征在幼儿期起核心作用，而母子动态关系在青春期前阶段变得最为重要。针对外化问题的干预措施应具有发展敏感性，学前项目强调母亲的幸福感和早期关系基础，而青春期前项目则优先加强母子关系并应对二元挑战。
